Best actress category looks slim for Oscars

Alonso Duralde Film critic

When it was announced that Hilary Swank would be starring as Amelia Earhart in the new biopic “Amelia,” Oscar-watchers everywhere thought to themselves, “Well, of course.” Swank, after all, took home Best Actress Oscars for two films — 1999’s “Boys Don’t Cry” and 2004’s “Million Dollar Baby” — that required her to cut her hair, wear pants and communicate photogenic anguish.

When Swank goes glam, as in “The Affair of the Necklace” or “The Black Dahlia,” audiences fail to engage. So playing legendary aviator Earhart aligns perfectly with the roles that have done the most for her career. (Don’t be surprised if she decides to play Joan of Arc or a Pennsylvania wife who crops her locks to join the Union Army before the next decade is out.)

In a typical year packed with noteworthy female performances, Swank’s relatively perfunctory work in “Amelia” (a film she also executive-produced) might get a snub from the Academy, but with 2009 looking like one of the leanest years in memory for leading actresses, Swank may wind up squeezing her way into Oscar’s five finalists.

Whether it’s the result of Hollywood’s recent abandonment of adult drama as a viable genre or merely some crazy kind of cyclical drought that periodically hits like Halley’s Comet, there aren’t nearly as many strong Best Actress contenders this year as there generally are — the usual Oscar rule of thumb states there are far more viable possibilities among leading ladies than among leading men. This year, however, it appears that the pool of possible nominees can pretty much be counted on two hands.

The sure things
There are very few metaphysical certainties when it comes to talking about the Academy Awards, but it’s pretty much a done deal that Carey Mulligan will be a Best Actress nominee for her funny and forthright starring role in “An Education.” Her character’s blossoming from dreamy-eyed schoolgirl to chic woman of the world has been dazzling critics ever since the film’s premiere at Sundance, which is also where the talk of a nomination began. Sure, she’s a relative unknown in this country — but so was Marion Cotillard the year of “La Vie en Rose.”

Before studio execs started looking at her as a summer box-office sure thing, the Academy has always been a big fan of Meryl Streep, nominating her 15 times over the years (with one win each in the Supporting Actress and Actress categories). In 2009, Streep offers Oscar voters two plum roles for their consideration — in “Julie & Julia,” she brilliantly impersonates chef Julia Child’s one-of-a-kind voice and her voracious appetite for both gourmet food and life itself, while “It’s Complicated,” later this year, sees a sexy Streep trying to choose between the affections of her boyfriend (Steve Martin) and her ex-husband (Alec Baldwin). Playing real people is always an Academy fave, and Diane Keaton got a nod playing a similar hot-mama-of-a-certain-age for “Complicated” director Nancy Meyers in “Something’s Gotta Give,” so either way, Streep’s in good shape. (Assuming she doesn’t split her constituency in half, of course.)

While some pundits are drumming up the notion of a “‘Precious’ backlash” because Lee Daniel’s urban melodrama came up empty in this week’s Gotham Awards nominations, there’s still a lot of talk about the film’s lead, first-timer Gabourey Sidibe, in the title role of an overweight, abused, illiterate teen who turns her life around. Granted, the producers might decide to pull a Timothy Hutton in “Ordinary People” and push Sidibe into the supporting category to improve her awards odds, but the recent Best Actress nomination of Keisha Castle-Hughes in 2002’s “Whale Rider” shows that a young performer can be competitive in the big leagues.

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