One governor’s race a snapshot of U.S. attitudes

updated 5:52 a.m. ET Oct. 20, 2009

PURCELLVILLE, Va. - Just a year after this one-time Confederate state helped elect a black man president, Democrats are desperately trying to hang onto the governorship.

A lot has changed: Loyal Democrats are more subdued than last fall. Republicans are energized. Independents are proving to be ... independent. Voters of all kinds seem disenchanted.

Just like Americans nationwide.

The contest between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds provides a snapshot of sorts — 12 months after America elected Barack Obama as president and expanded Democratic majorities in Congress, and one year before midterm elections in every state.

And the picture, in Virginia as in the nation, is not pretty for Democrats.

'Disgusted by everything'
Republicans are far more fired up than Democrats, and independents who leaned left just a year ago are tilting away. Frustration over the status quo, fear of the country's direction, and disillusionment about political leaders span the ideological spectrum.

"I'm disgusted by everything. We couldn't be at a worse place in this country," said Maria Taylor, a waitress in Purcellville's small business district. She calls herself an independent and hasn't decided whom to support as Virginia's next governor.

At the nearby hardware store, fellow undecided voter Cary Koppie, a one-man mowing company, is so angry he says he may sit out this election. "They're all a bunch of liars," he said. "You don't know who the heck to vote for anymore."

Two weeks before the Nov. 3 election, polls show McDonnell, a former state attorney general, leading Deeds, a former state legislator, by nearly double digits. After two terms of Democrats at the helm, voters may again be craving change. Every four years since 1997, Virginia has chosen the candidate of the opposite party from the one that controls the White House.

Prospects appear better for Democrats in New Jersey, where embattled Gov. Jon Corzine is in a close race with Republican Chris Christie in this year's other governor's race. Corzine is favored to win; it's a Democratic-leaning state and independent Chris Daggett is sucking support from both parties.

Obama will be campaigning for Corzine on Wednesday and has stops lined up for Deeds, too, before Election Day.

So much could change
The outcomes won't predict next year's midterm results. So much could change. Jobs could return. Health care overhaul could pass. War in Afghanistan could be winding down. People could feel better about where the country is heading.

But given Virginia's newfound swing-voting behavior, the McDonnell-Deeds outcome will be a key measure of how America feels and, perhaps more importantly, how independent voters are acting ahead of the 2010 elections. Independents will be critical as Democrats try to protect their majorities in Congress and pick up governorships in a number of states.

Here in Virginia, as well as in the wider U.S., Republican crossover voters and independents are breaking from the Democrats, partly because they're put off by Obama's government expansion and expensive policy proposals like health care. The question in Virginia is how they'll split between McDonnell and Deeds — if they turn out at all.

"Neither one of them makes me particularly excited," said Dale Thompson, a gun-shop owner who shuns party labels and thinks "society's a mess." Still, he's supporting McDonnell — "the least evil of the bunch."

Down the street, toy-store owner Bill Lupinacci, 51, a Republican who backed Democrat Tim Kaine for governor in 2006 and Obama in 2008, is undecided — and turned off by both the candidates for the state's top office. "They're spending most of their time on attack ads rather than putting forth their positions on the issues."

McDonnell has been forced to defend his graduate school thesis from 20 years ago that criticized career women, gays and cohabiting unmarried couples. Deeds has drawn criticism for repeatedly refusing to specify how he would raise the $1 billion a year needed to revive critical transportation projects.

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