Soft power, but hard questions, for Tehran

As the United States and world powers prepare to sit down with their Iranian counterparts on Oct. 1, much attention will be on what concessions, if any, Iran is willing to make on its nuclear program. Joseph S. Nye Jr., who pioneered the theory of soft power, says while he doesn't expect any major breakthroughs from the talks, Washington nonetheless has a responsibility to push Iran to come clean.

"If [the Iranians] develop nuclear weapons, there's likely to be a chain of proliferation in the Middle East. This may make the prospect of nuclear weapons being used go up by a significant probability," Nye says. "We have a right, as do their neighbors, to try to persuade them to forego that."

Nye says revelations of a secret uranium-enrichment plant near the holy city of Qom may strengthen Washington's hand in negotiations. But more than anything, Nye says, President Barack Obama's decision to engage Iran has shown other regional actors that U.S. foreign policy is increasingly multilateral.

CFR.org's Greg Bruno: On Thursday, U.S. diplomats will meet with their Iranian counterparts for direct negotiations in Tehran's nuclear program. Should we be holding out much hope for a major breakthrough?

Joseph Nye: It's more likely to be incremental than a major breakthrough. But the interesting question will be whether it's possible to put a package to Iran that has large enough carrots as well as large enough sticks [to] make them decide that it would be worth delaying their plans to develop a nuclear weapon. We don't know the answer to that, and we'll try to find that out in the process of the talks.

Have you thought about what such a package might look like?

It's clear that on the carrots side you'd have to do something about more normal diplomatic relations with Iran. You might want to do something about unlocking Iran's [natural] gas reserves, which would be beneficial in terms of world energy markets. It has a two-way benefit: one for Iran and one for us. It would also include some relaxation of some of the sanctions on a graduated basis, until we see whether the Iranians comply with the things we're asking for.

On the sticks side, it would imply the idea of tightening sanctions if the Iranians are not at all forthcoming. The types of sanctions that have been talked about include refined products such as gasoline, as well as financial sanctions to the extent that we can.

On the question of sanctions, there's much debate as to how effective they are. Generally speaking, how well do they move the dial?

The conventional wisdom, which is partly correct and partly wrong, is that sanctions don't work. There's been a careful study of this by [Gary Clyde] Hufbauer, [Jeffrey J.] Schott, and [Kimberly Ann] Elliott, which concludes they work about one-third of the time. More to the point, sanctions have to be posed as a question: compared to what? Sometimes they are the only instrument that is readily available.

Putting it another way, the question should not be if they are effective, but if they are cost-effective. You have to pose it comparatively. It might be that a military invasion would be effective, but it might not be cost-effective. There could be a higher level of cost than you want to pay. Sanctions may, in fact, not be fully effective but might come at a much lower level of cost. Most of the discussion of sanctions has used a double standard: They've assumed a relatively effective and cost-free military comparison. The proper assessment is to ask about the cost-effectiveness in comparison to other policy instruments.

How important in talks like these is it to have the perceived upper hand going in? And in the specific case of Iran, is there a risk that bullying by the West might simply prompt Iran to be less likely to cooperate?

It's possible that the Iranians, seeing the Americans gaining leverage with the announcement of the Qom plant at Pittsburgh, may decide that they will create obfuscation because they see their bargaining situation as weakened. It's also possible that if they make a decision, they may delay in their effort to move toward nuclear weapons. I don't think anything will be quick, but they're going to have to decide whether the cost and benefit to them of going ahead on their current path is worth it. What we're trying to do with a package of bigger carrots and bigger sticks is to affect that cost-benefit assessment.

Your assessment of Washington's hand right now — strong or not so much?

I'd say it's better than it was two weeks ago, and it's better than it was a year ago. Obama's policy of engagement has helped him make the record that the United States is willing to engage. That was [seen as suspect] by not only Iranians but by other countries in the past. By beginning a process as he has, he's made a record with other countries — third parties whose help we'll need if we do have to impose sanctions.

What about the question of legitimacy? In the case of post-election Iran, many have argued this is not the time to engage because of a perceived lack of legitimacy.

If we only engaged with states that we regard as fully legitimate, we would limit our diplomatic options quite dramatically. After all, in the Cold War we engaged in arms-control agreements with the Soviet Union while not accepting their legitimacy because we believed that it was in our interest. At the same time that we engaged in arms-control negotiations with the Soviet Union, we were also critical of the Soviet human rights policy. It is possible to do both.

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