Doing a 'Vitter' makes senator a survivorman

COMMENTARY

By Bill Pascoe, CQ Guest Columnist

updated 11:20 a.m. ET Aug. 4, 2009

WASHINGTON - Some years ago, a lawyer whose client's story was so explosive that everybody in the media wanted to get a piece of him decided to do five Sunday morning talk shows, all on the same day.

Thus was born Doing a "Full Ginsburg."

A few years later, in a Senate race in New Jersey, a candidate quit the race just 35 days before the election — long after the statutory deadline — and got the state's Supreme Court to let him get away with it.

Thus was born Pulling a "Torricelli."

And now, in the wake of revelations by Sen. John Ensign and Gov. Mark Sanford that each had engaged in extramarital affairs, they are being advised to Do a "Vitter."

Two summers ago, first-term Sen. David Vitter, R-La., was a third of the way into his first term, and doing well by all accounts.

But then, facing exposure, he hastily arranged a press conference and revealed that his name and phone number were in the address book of "D.C. Madam" Debra Jean Palfrey.

Vitter took full responsibility and apologized for what he called "serious sin." There were no weasel words used, and he spoke in the active voice.

And then he refused to answer questions on the matter.

That press conference, it is clear in hindsight, was not the end of his game plan. It was just the beginning.

Video   Ensign responds July 24: One More Thing: Rachel Maddow reports on Sen. John Ensign’s, latest statement saying he won’t talk about his affair anymore. The Rachel Maddow Show

Like most of what Vitter has done in his public life, that plan and its execution have been methodical and logical and comprehensive.

The four elements
The plan consists of four main elements: First, having addressed the media on the subject of the D.C. Madam to Vitter's own satisfaction, he shut up about it; second, he redoubled his efforts to deliver tangible results for his base voters, to remind them of why they sent him to Washington in the first place; third, he used his intra-party muscle to head off a debilitating primary challenge; and fourth, he determined to raise so much money so early that it would act as a major deterrent to a serious general election threat.

And it has worked.

It has worked so well that in CQ Politics' recent Senate Race Ratings for 2010, Vitter's race is rated as "Leans Republican" — the same rating given to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint's race, and to the open seat race in Florida, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee is high on popular incumbent Gov. Charlie Crist as its likely nominee.

That Vitter should be rated just as likely to win as DeMint and Florida Republicans, despite having to confess "serious sin" publicly in a state where 58 percent of the population reports weekly church attendance — the highest rate of church attendance in the nation — is a testament to Vitter's strategy and execution.

Vitter's game plan began with a realistic assessment of what the political environment would look like in 2010.

By the summer of 2007, it was clear that population loss after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina had dramatically changed the partisan dynamics of the statewide playing field. In short, an awful lot of people had left the state, and hadn't come back. And the overwhelming majority of those who hadn't come back, it turns out, tended to pull the Democratic lever on Election Day.

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