Republican unity abates with Bush

COLUMBUS JUNCTION, Iowa, Oct. 21 - Dave Boyd, sipping a Busch Light in his lawn chair as Rep. Jim Leach (R-Iowa) approached, was troubled. As a production operator at an auto interiors shop in Iowa City, he worried about the Bush administration’s bid to revamp the nation’s overtime rules.

“I THINK it would cut into our income quite a bit,” Boyd said of the plan, which would make some middle-income workers ineligible for overtime pay.

“I voted against it,” replied Leach, who was attending the town’s annual Columbus Day parade. “The theory of those who advocate it is that it gives management more flexibility.” But “lots of people would be affected by it” negatively.

Until recently, few Republican lawmakers would be so quick to distance themselves from President Bush. But the president’s approval ratings have fallen sharply since April, the nation’s job growth remains sluggish and large numbers of Americans feel the nation is putting too much money — and not enough wise planning — into Iraq.

Although many Republicans are optimistic that Bush will win reelection next year, all nonretiring House members (and a third of senators) have their own 2004 reelection campaigns to worry about. Some GOP incumbents — especially those in the several dozen House districts that Democrat Al Gore carried or nearly won in 2000 — are showing an increasing willingness to vote against key White House initiatives and to reassure constituents that they think and act independently of the president.

Leach was among 21 Republicans who joined most Democrats when the House voted 221 to 203 to bar the administration from implementing the overtime revisions. Scores of Republicans bucked the White House by voting to overturn a Federal Communications Commission rule making media mergers easier, and several also voted, against Bush’s wishes, to allow the importation of prescription drugs from Canada and other countries.

NOT A SHARP BREAK - YET

Such erosion of GOP solidarity was rarely seen when Bush’s approval ratings were higher, but it hardly signals a deep or permanent break between the White House and congressional GOP moderates. Republican lawmakers from swing districts say that Bush generally remains popular with their constituents, and that jobs, not Iraq, are No. 1 on voters’ minds. Many GOP House members are taking a cautious line: focusing on the possibility that Bush can’t help them at reelection time, yet continuing to support him as much as possible.

Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (R-Fla.) said he foresees an easier time for Bush next year in the Sunshine State, site of the dramatic 2000 election recount. “I don’t think Bush is going to find Florida as close as it was last time,” Shaw said. “I think Jewish voters may break more for the president” because of his strong support of Israel.

However, Shaw noted, “Drugs for seniors is a huge issue.” Shaw has voted twice to allow importation of Canadian drugs despite the White House’s objections.

Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) hails from a district that Gore carried in 2000. He said he has not heard a lot of complaints about Iraq or the $87 billion that Bush wants to spend there and in Afghanistan, and he feels confident about his own reelection prospects.

The district has the lowest unemployment of any in Connecticut, in part because of two huge Indian gambling casinos that employ 40,000 people. This month, Simmons, who is on the Armed Services Committee, announced a $10 billion, multiyear contract for submarine construction at Electric Boat in his district.

“For the first time in years, EB is hiring, not firing,” he said.

‘THERE’S A QUESTION MARK’

Nonetheless, Simmons is guarded about Bush’s prospects, saying that Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) will generate a big Democratic vote with his reelection campaign and that it is possible that Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) — the 2000 vice presidential nominee — will be on the presidential ticket again.

‘It may be the president won’t take the district, but I will.’ — REP. ROB SIMMONS

“I operate off a base of 23 percent Republicans, so I am running every day,” he said. “It may be the president won’t take the district, but I will.”

Simmons’s neighbor, Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), has a more skeptical view of Bush’s standing. Shays said some constituents are beginning to lose confidence in the president, whom they have traditionally seen as a forthright man with a strong sense of mission.

“There’s a question mark — he either doesn’t know or he doesn’t want to share,” Shays said. “Both of those are hurting him badly.”

Between the war and the faltering economy in recent months, Shays said, “it wasn’t a great time, and the way he has handled it has made it even worse.”

JOBS ARE MAIN ISSUE

In most instances, the jobs picture — and especially the loss of U.S. jobs to China (and to Mexico, to a lesser extent) — was the first and main issue raised by these Republican lawmakers in recent interviews.

‘This is a patriotic district, and people support the president on what he is doing in Iraq. But they are upset by the loss of jobs.’ — REP. PHIL GINGREY

The bluntest was Rep. Phil Gingrey, a freshman from Georgia. “This is a patriotic district, and people support the president on what he is doing in Iraq,” Gingrey said. “But they are upset by the loss of jobs. I think [Secretary of Commerce Donald L.] Evans and the administration are finally getting it, that we are in an economic war with China and if we lose that war, winning in Iraq is not going to mean that much.”

Gingrey recently cosponsored a bill to threaten the Chinese with tariffs on their goods coming into the United States.

Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) also said that loss of manufacturing jobs “is the first thing [constituents] bring up. A lot of small manufacturers say they are being hurt by China’s manipulation of exchange rates. I’ve called on the administration to take strong action against that.”

Rep. Mark S. Kirk (R-Ill.), a moderate from the Chicago suburbs, is favored to win reelection and is closely allied with the president. But his constituents remain worried about the shaky financial shape of United Airlines and Motorola, two key employers.

“The job thing has bite,” Kirk said. His constituents “would like to hear more about it, and they would like to have the president talk more about it. You can’t talk about it enough.”

Rep. Steven C. LaTourette (R-Ohio), a fellow Midwesterner, is also worried.

“We have a lot of machine shop owners, first- and second-generation Americans, and they are concerned,” he said. “They see some signs of the economy improving, but they see a lot of tool-and-die trade going to China. They’re concerned that in a few years, they will be servicing the equipment, not making it.”

‘IT’S VERY ALARMING’

Some Republicans in swing districts said they believed Bush had gained ground compared with where he was in 2000. Freshman Rep. Jim Gerlach’s Pennsylvania district narrowly favored Gore three years ago. Now, Gerlach said, Bush is making inroads.

“I think he’ll be better in some suburban areas,” Gerlach said. “That will be helpful to me.”

Rep. Mike Ferguson (N.J.), another northeastern Republican from a swing district, said Bush “comes across as a strong and decisive leader. That’s the thing people have come to like and respect about President Bush.”

But Shays said some Republicans might be hurt by their ties to the president if the Iraqi situation and the nation’s economic outlook worsen.

‘For people like me who are such strong supporters of the president, when the president is making mistakes and you’re defending him, it impacts you.’ — REP. CHRISTOPHER SHAYS

“For people like me who are such strong supporters of the president, when the president is making mistakes and you’re defending him, it impacts you,” he said. “Conversely, when he’s doing well, it benefits you.”

Leach faced a tough reelection fight last year, and is keenly aware of voters’ unease. He has watched his district’s manufacturing base erode and the conflict in Iraq worsen.

“America as a ‘making society’ is in jeopardy,” Leach said. “It’s very alarming what’s happening.”

Among dozens of Iowa voters interviewed recently, several said they did not blame Bush for the country’s current problems. Trish Mohror, a rural mail carrier from Wapello, said that it will “take a while to recover” economically, but that Bush was cleaning up the mess former president Bill Clinton had left him. Luke Horak, an insurance agent, said people should start to “focus on the things that are going right.”

But more voters sounded like Leonard Hixon, a retiree and independent who works at a grocery store a few days a week. “He’s paying too much attention to people over there than people here,” he said, referring to the funds Bush requested for Iraq and Afghanistan.

Even some local Republican officials worry about the president’s reelection prospects.

“For Bush to get reelected, two things have to happen: The economy has to improve quite a bit, or Iraq has to be concluded successfully,” said Jim Howell, GOP chairman for Louisa County. “If both of those things are in the tank, he’ll have a rough road.”

Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.) said the Iraq funding also troubles his constituents. “There’s no question about supporting the troops,” he said, “but I do get questions about the money on top of that. And people say we ought to be loaning them the money, because they have the oil revenues.”

Eilperin reported from Iowa, Broder from Washington. Staff researcher Brian Faler contributed to this report.

© 2003 The Washington Post Company