Poll numbers might not tell the entire story

Mark Murray Deputy political director

TOWSON, Md. - The past wave of public polling, including Wednesday’s NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, hasn’t been terrific news for the Obama White House.

The president’s job-approval numbers have declined, although they remain above 50 percent. His standing on health care has dropped. And Republicans now find themselves, at least in the NBC/Journal survey, with an advantage over Democrats in which party would do a better job reducing the deficit — the first time the GOP has led on this question in 12 years.

But according to Peter D. Hart, the pollster who conducts the NBC/Journal survey with Republican Bill McInturff, poll numbers don't always tell the entire story.

That’s why Hart held a focus group Wednesday in the Baltimore area with 12 self-described independents to evaluate the first six months of Obama's presidency.

Seven of these independents voted for Obama in last November’s presidential contest, four voted for Republican John McCain and one voted for Ralph Nader. All the participants were white men and women, except for one African-American man.

While a few of them expressed negative opinions about Obama — saying they were “worried” or “afraid” — those who voted for him remained mostly supportive. And even half of the McCain voters said they were pulling for the president.

Remi, a 60-year-old Obama voter, praised his ability to communicate. Lou, a 63-year-old graphic designer who also voted for him, called the president “brilliant” and commended his willingness to deal with tough issues and improve the nation’s reputation overseas.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

Jeanne, a 56-year-old registered nurse who voted for Obama, said this when asked to evaluate his first six months in office: "I feel confident he'll get it done."

And Nora, a 54-year-old dental hygienist who also voted for Obama, observed, "He's not Superman," before adding, “I feel hopeful."

Obama vs. other politicians
Even Dave, a 39-year-old forklift driver who cast his vote for McCain, said he was “reluctantly hopeful" about Obama, acknowledging that he has a lot on his plate. And fellow McCain voter Marsha, 59, also remarked that she was “hopeful.”

By contrast, the participants weren't shy about expressing their complaints about the current state of the country or other politicians.

Words like “dismal,” “drained,” and “stagnant” were used to describe the nation’s direction.

On Vice President Biden: “useless” and “embarrassing.”

On former Alaska Republican Gov. Sarah Palin: “idiot,” “comical,” “nutty,” and “go away.”

But those kinds of sharp words weren’t directed at Obama — by either the independents who voted for him or against him. “Don’t get fooled by the [poll] numbers,” said Hart, who conducted the focus group for the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania. “There is something strong there” on attitudes about Obama.

That said, not every participant was positive about the president. Jennifer, a 48-year-old woman who voted for McCain, said, "I think the honeymoon is over."

Alex, 27, who was the sole African American and who voted for Obama, was pessimistic. "I'm not hopeful. I don't think he'll be able to pull it off."

Raymond, 44, who voted for McCain, called Obama "hopeless and change-less."

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