Poll: Obama loses ground on health care

Mark Murray Deputy political director

WASHINGTON - Despite his public-relations blitz over the past two weeks to promote his plans to reform the nation's health-care system — including holding two town halls on Wednesday — President Barack Obama has lost ground on this issue with the American public, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Pluralities now say that the president’s health care plan is a bad idea, and that it will result in the quality of their care getting worse. What’s more, just four in 10 approve of his handling on the issue.

The poll also finds that Obama's overall job-approval rating has dropped to 53 percent. And it shows a public that has grown increasingly concerned about the federal government's spending as the administration defends its $787 billion economic stimulus and supports a $1 trillion-plus health-care bill.

“This is a president who needs a vacation,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “His job rating is … certainly an acceptable mark. But if you look at it over time, it has [gone] south without a doubt.”

The good news for Obama, however, is that he remains the most popular politician in country, and Democrats continue to lead Republicans in the handling of several key issues, although the GOP has gained ground from a year ago.

But the poll, McInturff says, makes it clear that Obama — who had been gliding above the partisan fray — has come back down to earth. Conservatives and Republicans have moved away from him, while his numbers in the South and Midwest have declined.

“The question I asked back in February was: When does political gravity take hold?” he said. “The answer is in this survey. It is happening right now.”

The health insurance divide
That’s especially true on the issue of health care reform. As Congress works on its legislation and as Obama campaigns to get an overhaul enacted, 42 percent now say that the president’s plan is a bad idea, which is a 10-point increase since last month. Thirty-six percent say it’s a good idea.

In addition, 39 percent — a plurality — believe that Obama’s plan would result in the quality of their health care getting worse. That’s 15-point jump since April.

And just 41 percent approve of the president’s job on health care, which is nearly identical to Bill Clinton’s scores from 1994, when he failed to get Congress to pass health care reform.

But the poll — which was taken of 1,011 adults from July 17-20, and which has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points — also reveals a clear split between those who have private health insurance and those who don’t.

Americans who have private health insurance disapprove of Obama’s job on health care by a 51-38 percent margin. Those who lack insurance, however, approve of his job, 52-29 percent.

Video   Health care push hurts Obama's ratings July 29: NBC's Chuck Todd reports on the political toll to the president shown in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Nightly News

Also, when read the specifics of his goals for health care — like requiring insurers to cover those with pre-existing conditions, providing low-income families with subsidies to help them afford insurance, and raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for the subsidies — 56 percent say they support Obama’s plan. Only 38 percent oppose.

Hart, the Democratic pollster, thinks the Obama White House might see that finding as a silver lining in this survey. According to him, it means, “If I can get my message out, I am going to be there.”

Down on the stimulus, deficit
The public also has concerns with the progress of the $787 billion economic stimulus that Obama signed into law in February. In the poll, 43 percent believe the legislation was a bad idea, up 16 points since January. Just 34 percent say the stimulus was a good idea.

Indeed, the poll finds that the public’s top concern about Obama’s young presidency is that he has spent too much money, increasing the size of the deficit.

And now, according to the poll, Republicans find themselves with a six-point advantage over Democrats on the question of which party would do a better job of reducing the deficit. It’s the first time Republicans have led Democrats on this question since 1997.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

Republicans also now have advantages on controlling government spending and taxes — which McInturff says could make Obama’s job to sell a health care bill (and the tax increases that would pay for it) more difficult.

Still, the Democratic Party maintains its advantages over the GOP on health care, energy, getting the country out of recession and the economy, although those advantages are smaller than they were a year ago.

Overall, the Democratic Party’s favorability/unfavorability rating is 42-37 percent, while the Republican Party’s is 28-41 percent.

Obama: policies vs. popularity
The NBC/Journal survey has Obama’s overall approval rating at 53 percent, which is down three points from last month (and which also equals the percentage he won in last November’s presidential contest).

His job approval in handling the economy is lower, at 49 percent.

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