Iraq withdrawal risk discounted despite attacks

updated 2:21 a.m. ET June 25, 2009

WASHINGTON - The Obama administration has concluded the risk of a security collapse in Iraq is too slight to slow plans for withdrawing U.S. troops. In the run-up to June 30, the deadline for U.S. combat troops to leave Iraqi cities, the nation has been rocked by big attacks, including a bombing Wednesday evening in the Sadr City district of Baghdad that killed more than 50.

Still, intelligence analysts, policy advisers and military officers in Washington and Iraq said in a series of interviews that they believe the threat of renewed sectarian warfare is receding — even with the transfer of security control from U.S. to Iraqi hands.

At stake in that judgment is not only Iraq's hope for stability after six years of war, but also an early verdict on President Barack Obama's decision to do less in Iraq in order to do more to turn around the war in Afghanistan.

The next milestone on the path to U.S. military disengagement is next Tuesday's deadline for American combat forces to leave Iraqi cities, including Mosul, which has been a hotbed of insurgent activity. The deadline is in an agreement reached during the administration of President George W. Bush as a step toward the full withdrawal of U.S. forces by the end of 2011.

String of violence
Preceding Wednesday's carnage, a string of bombings and shootings in Baghdad and elsewhere killed dozens earlier this week, and on Saturday a truck bombing near the northern oil center of Kirkuk killed at least 75.

Officials believe the bloodiest attacks are the work of al-Qaida in Iraq, the diminished but resilient insurgent group believed to be run largely by foreign Arabs.

It is the al-Qaida group's decline — in numbers of fighters, resources and effectiveness — over the past year that gives U.S. officials greater confidence that Iraq will stay largely on track toward stability even as the American role grows smaller.

The optimistic view was captured in a recent remark by Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, who is on his third tour there.

"The dark days of previous years are behind us," he said.

Still, a prevailing view among U.S. intelligence officials who closely follow trends in Iraq is that violence is likely to rise this summer.

Attack numbers are going to go up as U.S. combat patrols are reduced, said one military intelligence officer who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an internal assessment of violence trends.

In that view, the insurgents will regain some momentum as the U.S. presence grows thinner. But the intelligence analysts also believe the insurgents' gains will be too small to trigger a renewed cycle of sectarian warfare. A cycle of violence between Sunnis and Shiites in 2006-07 brought Iraq to the brink of all-out civil war.

Some private analysts worry that the administration may be underestimating the possibility that continuing violence and political turmoil could lead to an unraveling of the security situation.

Stephen Biddle, who periodically served as an adviser to Gen. David Petraeus when Petraeus was the overall U.S. commander in Iraq in 2007-08, takes a cautious view, although he does not predict an Iraqi collapse. He recommends slowing the pace of the announced U.S. withdrawal, while noting that this would impose tough political costs on a president who campaigned on a promise of a rapid action.

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