Is Mousavi’s rebel stature being eroded in Iran?

updated 9:03 p.m. ET June 23, 2009

CAIRO - Mir Hossein Mousavi is still nominally the guiding force of the fury over Iran's disputed election. But there are ample signs his rebel stature is being eroded by his hesitation to shift from campaigner to street agitator as his supporters challenge security forces.

The questions over Mousavi's standing are part of a larger debate over the direction of the unprecedented assault on Iran's Islamic leadership.

The size of the demonstrations has fallen sharply since Mousavi led hundreds of thousands through Tehran last week over claims of vote rigging in the June 12 presidential election. The growing threats from security forces leave little doubt that authorities are prepared to strike back hard.

A gathering of about 200 people on Monday was quickly broken up by tear gas and shots fired into the air. On Tuesday, protesters retreated to much milder methods: honking car horns, chanting from rooftops and holding up posters denouncing the crackdown and alleged vote fraud.

The developments gave the clear impression of authorities gaining the upper hand, at least for the moment. Crushing the protesters' spirits and ability to regroup would likely mean even greater power for Iran's Revolutionary Guard — the Islamic regime's main military muscle and backer of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And it could put reformists under relentless pressure for years to come.

But it's still far too early to declare the opposition forces doomed. Protest organizers are appealing for another major rally, perhaps Thursday, in hopes of recapturing momentum and projecting their resolve. They also appear to be moving beyond Mousavi's specific call for a new election and widening their rage against the entire Islamic power structure.

What's still missing, however, are clear signals from Mousavi.

He left many followers bewildered with twin messages this week. He called on his backers to maintain the cries to annul the election results that showed a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad. But he also declared full respect for Iran's Islamic system and even described as "our brothers" the pro-regime militias who have beaten demonstrators and been blamed by protesters for gunning down marchers last week.

Other indications point to a drift away from Mousavi.

'Not really about Mousavi any more'
The ribbons and banners of his "green wave" election campaign have been much less conspicuous at recent marches and clashes. The chants were less about Mousavi's demand for a new election and more about general outrage toward the ruling establishment, including once unimaginable denunciations of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It raises the prospect of Mousavi's movement fragmenting — with more militant branches breaking away from those adhering to Mousavi's call to fight within the system. Such a split could bring more confrontations, and leave the divided forces more vulnerable to crackdown and mass arrests.

"It's not really about Mousavi any more," said Ali Nader, an Iran specialist at the RAND Corp. "The population has expressed its unhappiness with the system. You could argue that Iran has reached the point where the population has said: 'Enough is enough.'"

Mousavi has had a split persona from the outset.

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