Karzai leads in early Afghan election poll

updated 7:01 p.m. ET June 16, 2009

KABUL - Oversize posters of President Hamid Karzai blanketed the Afghan capital Tuesday as the two-month presidential campaign began. While Afghans on the street openly complained about Karzai's rule, a new survey showed why he is likely to win a second term: His opponents have almost no support.

The poll found that 31 percent of 3,200 Afghans surveyed said they would vote for Karzai if the Aug. 20 presidential election were held today — a steep decline from the 55 percent of Afghans who voted to give him a five-year term in 2004.

But Karzai is likely to take comfort with the survey's other results: 69 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of him, and 43 percent of likely voters said he deserves a second term.

Most strikingly, only 7 percent of respondents said they would vote for Karzai's closet competitor, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. The next strongest opponent, former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani, had just 4 percent support.

The poll, based on face-to-face interviews, was conducted in May and funded by the International Republican Institute, a non-governmental organization that receives funding from USAID, the U.S. government aid arm. The poll, which sought to strike a representative sample along ethnic and gender lines, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Campaign off to slow start
Campaigning got off to a slow start Tuesday, with Karzai in Russia and Abdullah not appearing in public. But Ghani held a rally under a colorful tent.

"Today it is your responsibility to make a decision about a government for the people, without corruption and without thieves and robbers," Ghani told several hundred supporters.

Taliban militants this month have launched a record number of attacks, and the U.S. and other NATO countries are sending in tens of thousands of extra troops to be tasked in part with helping to protect voters.

Karzai has served as Afghanistan's leader since soon after the Taliban regime's ouster in 2001. But Afghans rail against his government for incompetence and corruption, and against U.S. troops for accidental civilian killings in military operations.

"The last election I voted for Karzai, but later I saw that he was not worth it," Mohammad Shokran, 28, said while standing on a street corner next to campaign posters. "He could not do anything for development or progress for the country. Of all the people who are running for the presidency, Abdullah will be the best."

Improvement in family finances
Still, the new poll showed that 53 percent of respondents said their family's financial situation had improved in the last five years, an indicator of economic progress that is often a key factor in how incumbents fare at the ballot box. Only 20 percent said their finances were worse.

"I will vote for Karzai because I'm sure that among all these candidates he is the most popular with the international community," Rafiullah Shams, 32, said while hanging a poster of Karzai on his Kabul shop window.

"And he was the one who changed life after the Taliban to the democracy we have today," Shams said. "Now there's mobile phones and the Internet. Money flowed into the country. I'm sure in his next term he can attract even more financial support."

Karzai's new campaign manager, Den Mohammad, who resigned from his position as the governor of Kabul province to join the campaign team, said he did not think Karzai's popularity had declined and insinuated that the IRI poll was not impartial.

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