Why Iran's election may not really matter

No incumbent has lost a presidential election in post-Revolution Iran. But 2009's challengers are directing unusually intense criticism at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on matters of foreign policy, domestic economic health, and management of the nuclear file.

This has triggered enormous interest in the West about the potential for a new presidential administration to engage with Washington on a range of issues. Yet questions remain about the significance of the Iranian office of president.

While the Iranian president has considerable latitude in domestic matters, and is the most visible member of Iran's inner circle on the world stage, his power remains secondary to the Supreme Leader.

A number of analysts and Iranians, particularly those from urban areas who support opposition candidates seen as reformers, believe this arrangement undermines the electoral process. U.S. officials regularly dismiss Iran's elections as unfair. Some experts suggest that despite the president's lack of absolute authority in Iran, the political leaning of the office holder can shape, albeit subtly, the direction of regime policies.

A presidential paradox
Officially the highest elected office in the Islamic Republic of Iran's bureaucracy, the president remains subordinate to the Supreme Leader, who serves as the final arbiter on foreign policy, media, nuclear-related decisions, and military and national security.

The president, meanwhile, carries out the "functions of the executive" as outlined in Iran's constitution, duties that range from appointing ambassadors and cabinet ministers to planning and executing the national budget. Article 113 of the constitution stipulates that executive power is subservient to "the office of Leadership."

Ali Alfoneh, a visiting research fellow at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, argues this arrangement fosters the myth that Iran's electorate has a role in the preserving Iranian sovereignty. "This is false," he says.

Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes in a June 2009 election scene setter that the country's current leader, Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei, has consolidated power over the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Guardian Council (which vets presidential candidates; see below), and the parliament.

And while Ahmadinejad has repeatedly defended Iran's right to pursue peaceful nuclear technologies, final decisions on uranium enrichment and the overall direction of the program lie with Khamenei.

Historical shifts
The office of the president is generally seen as more powerful today than when it was established three decades ago.

In the early years of the Islamic Republic, presidential powers were limited, with the regime's constitutional framers taking care not to give the office excessive strength for fear of a possible coup. The country's first president, Abol Hassan Bani Sadr, ran into immediate disagreement on policy between his office and Prime Minister Mohammad Ali Rajai.

Mohsen Milani , an expert on Iran's presidency at the University of South Florida, writes in the British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies that Bani Sadr "tried to create an imperial presidency, to make his office independent and powerful." He failed, was marginalized by supporters of the regime, and in 1981 fled to France amid calls for his execution . Rajai succeeded Bani Sadr, but served just two weeks in office before being assassinated (no one claimed responsibility).

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The election of Ali Khamenei as Iran's third president in 1981 restored order to the executive, but Khamenei (now Iran's Supreme Leader) operated in the shadow of Ayatollah Khomeini and "remained a weak and uncontroversial president," Milani notes. During Khamenei's presidency, Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, now a top challenger for the presidency, was credited with displaying strong leadership, especially on economic matters.

After the elimination of the post of prime minister in 1989, executive duties were consolidated in the office of the presidency. Presidential powers have ebbed and flowed since, depending on the office holder.

In an interview with CFR.org, Milani said Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was an effective president due to his personal relationships and political charisma, a dynamic that was lost in 1997 with the election of Mohammad Khatami. "Khatami didn't have that kind of relationship with the Supreme Leader" that Rafsanjani did, says Milani, and "during that period the presidency wasn't that powerful."

Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, restored the type of political influence commanded by Rafsanjani, Milani says, "and the Supreme Leader has started to give [Ahmadinejad] some room to maneuver, especially on domestic issues."

Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, says Ahmadinejad's "notorious personality" has also contributed to interest in the 2009 Iranian presidential race. "By inserting himself in all of Iran's most contentious debates and by asserting himself both on the domestic and international stage, Ahmadinejad has emerged as the focal point of Iran's contemporary political landscape," she writes.

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