Has economic twilight come to the Sun Belt?

By Todd Lewan

AP National Writer

updated 6:41 a.m. ET May 31, 2009

ORLANDO, Fla. - We first heard the term decades ago: The "Sun Belt" was just starting a run of phenomenal growth — and no wonder. It conjured a sunny state of mind as well as a balmy place on the map.

Everybody, it seemed, wanted a spot in the sun.

Industries such as aerospace, defense and oil set up shop across America's southernmost tier, capitalizing on the low involvement of labor unions and the proximity of military bases that paid handsomely, and reliably, for their products and services.

Later, San Jose, Calif., and Austin, Texas, developed into high-tech nerve centers; Houston grew into a hub for the oil industry; Nashville became a mecca for music recording and production; Charlotte, N.C., transformed itself into a center for low-cost banking and finance; and then there were the new Dixie Detroits, places like Canton, Miss., Georgetown, Ky., and Spartanburg, S.C., that began rolling out Titans, Camrys and BMWs.

Meanwhile, other warm-weather havens offered their own variants of the Sun Belt dream — as Fountains of Youth for 60-and-up duffers, as Magic Kingdoms for fun-seekers, as Cape Canaverals for middle-aged northerners looking to launch their second acts.

Air conditioning, bug spray and drainage canals that transformed marshes into golf-course subdivisions — these innovations, plus the availability of flat, low-taxed land attracted migrants from Brooklyn and Cleveland, Havana and Mexico City to locales once dismissed as too hot, too swampy, too dry, too backwater-ish.

"We Give Years to Your Life and Life to Your Years!" That was the sort of slogan you'd hear from developers pitching the promise that a new start in the Sun Belt might even, in the best of circumstances, extend one's time on Earth.

In this way, for a generation or more, the Sun Belt thrived like no other region in America — a growth so steady it felt as though the boom would never end. But now it has, replaced by a bust that has left some swaths of the region suffering as severely as anywhere in the current recession.

What brought the dark clouds to the Sun Belt, and are they here to stay?

Housing bubbles
Interviews with economists and demographers across the region, and data from The Associated Press Economic Stress Index, a month-by-month analysis of foreclosure, bankruptcy and unemployment rates in more than 3,000 U.S. counties, suggest that the answers are not all encouraging.

Some cities — Las Vegas, Phoenix, Fort Myers are good examples — hitched their floats to housing bubbles and got caught up in development that depended largely on, well, development itself, rather than sustainable, scalable, productive industry, economic analysts say.

It's in these places where the economic meltdown "will likely find its fullest bloom," Richard Florida, the urbanist and author, wrote recently in an Atlantic Monthly article titled "How the Crash Will Reshape America."

AP Stress Index figures, which calculate the economic impact of the recession on a scale of 1 to 100, illustrate how the downturn has played out in some of these communities:

• In Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, the Stress Index more than doubled from 5.12 at the beginning of the recession in December 2007 to 12.67 in March 2009, worsened by a foreclosure rate that nearly tripled.
• Mounting foreclosures in Las Vegas' Clark County drove up its Stress Index score from 10.5 at the start of the recession to 19.3 in March 2009.
• In Lee County, home to Fort Myers, unemployment has doubled and foreclosures have soared 75 percent since the recession began, lifting its Stress Index from 10.5 to 19.98.

'Giant Ponzi scheme'
The boom in parts of the Sun Belt was, Florida wrote in the Atlantic, a "giant Ponzi scheme" — a growth machine that banked on wishful thinking, on the hope that an unending stream of new arrivals would forever inject their money into construction and real estate.

But as often is the case with such schemes, there comes a day when the engine sputters, gasps, and conks out. A day when the faithful stop turning up.

In the Sun Belt's newer, shallow-rooted communities, the roadkill is most evident: Where once there were "boomburbs," there now stand "ghostdivisions." Where property-flipping was once almost a middle-class sport, joblessness and "For Sale by Owner" signs reign.

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