GOP has high hopes in N.J., Va. governor races

updated 3:34 p.m. ET May 27, 2009

MORRISTOWN, N.J. - Republicans are dreaming big in the swamps of New Jersey and the rural outposts of Virginia.

After crushing losses at all levels of government in back-to-back elections, the GOP has pinned its hopes on the only major contests this year — governors' races in two states that Democrats control. Downtrodden Republicans hope victories this fall will revive the party heading into crucial congressional elections in 2010.

The GOP has suffered a series of setbacks, including coming up short in a special election in a Republican-leaning upstate New York congressional district, since last fall's drubbing at the hands of now-President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats.

Prospects in New Jersey and Virginia seem promising for competitive races this fall, even though Obama is popular in both states. Six months ago, he won New Jersey by 15 percentage points over Republican Sen. John McCain, and he became the first Democrat since 1964 to carry Virginia.

GOP's 'chance to break free'
Nonetheless, independent analysts say Republicans have a real chance in both governors' races.

"Statewide politics are different than national, and there is no George W. Bush to drag down the Republican Party this time around," said Harry Wilson, professor of public affairs at Virginia's Roanoke College. "There's no question the Republican Party itself is suffering nationally, but in both of these states Republicans do have a chance to break free."

In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine is considered so vulnerable that national Democratic groups are spending millions on television ads to influence the outcome of the state's GOP primary June 2.

Gov. Jon Corzine is facing serious competition in New Jersey.

A series of polls has shown Corzine trailing Republican Chris Christie, a former U.S. attorney under Bush. Corzine, who made millions as a Wall Street executive and was a U.S. senator, is coping with record low approval ratings as he struggles to close a multibillion-dollar budget deficit.

Corruption and ethics
As a prosecutor, Christie won praise for cracking down on corruption — an accomplishment that get noticed in a state that's seen a fair share of crimes and malfeasance — and for successfully prosecuting two major terrorism cases. He says he's convicted 130 politicians and public employees.

christiefornj.com Republican Chris Christie has to fend off a challenge from his own party before taking on the incumbent governor.

Christie has raised the maximum campaign cash allowed for the primary and earned the backing of nearly all the state's GOP establishment.

But he first must thwart a feisty challenge from Steve Lonegan, a former mayor of Bogota, which is about 15 miles north of Newark. Lonegan is a conservative with a following among many right-leaning GOP primary voters. A recent Quinnipiac University poll put Christie ahead of Lonegan by 23 points, but several strategists believe the race is much closer.

lonegan.com Steve Lonegan is seen as a GOP gubernatorial longshot in N.J.

Enter the Democratic Governors Association, which teamed with allied groups this past week on a $1 million ad campaign contending that Christie is not exactly the ethical champion he claims to be.

At issue are out-of-court settlements Christie brokered with companies suspected of white-collar crime, and lucrative no-bid contracts he awarded to prominent lawyers to monitor the settlements. The lawyers included former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, who received a $27 million contract, and David Kelley, a federal prosecutor who two years ago declined to prosecute Christie's brother for stock fraud.

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