Iran’s president faces hurdles on campaign trail

updated 9:26 p.m. ET May 23, 2009

TEHRAN, Iran - Moments after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's underdog victory four years ago, the streets in scruffy south Tehran were in full celebration for their native son.

Shops offered free sweets and tea. Women shouted prayers from open windows. The khaki-shirted basiji — the street vigilantes of the Islamic Revolution — chanted slogans and thanked God that a true ideological ally was now president.

The views toward him now are much more nuanced, conflicted and increasingly critical over issues that range from Iran's gasping economy to his combative style with the West. How he responds could largely set the tone for the June 12 vote between Ahmadinejad and three challengers: a fellow hard-liner who led the powerful Revolutionary Guard, and two perceived reformers.

The election comes amid high-stakes challenges in Iran's relations with the West and its own region.

The clock is ticking on Washington's offer for dialogue on issues including Iran's nuclear program. Iran's test firing of a missile with a range that covers the entire Middle East, including Israel and U.S. bases, also was seen as a pre-election display of military muscle.

In practical terms, the outcome will likely make little difference because all major decisions are handed down directly by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, or through the Revolutionary Guard. However, the election has strong symbolic value and will determine whether Ahmadinejad is seen as a suitable front man for the brinksmanship ahead with the Obama administration.

Ahmadinejad can still count on the twin pillars of his image — populist hero and champion for Islam — to swing him substantial support. But his uncomplicated messages of sharing the wealth and fighting for the faith that worked in 2005 no longer resonate the same way.

"The West is, as expected, looking at this election through a geo-strategic lens," said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a researcher in Iranian affairs at Syracuse University. "In Iran, it's about things like jobs, rising prices and the country's isolation."

Potential weak link
There's no real Persian equivalent for the American political axiom, "It's the economy, stupid." There might be after this race.

Promises of oil revenue handouts and more jobs were the backbone of Ahmadinejad's campaign that catapulted him from the relative obscurity of Tehran city hall. It's now his potential weak link.

The country's balance sheets look as gloomy as ever, with double-digit unemployment and at least 25 percent inflation. Last year's record oil prices brought no serious windfalls because OPEC giant Iran lacks enough refineries to meet domestic demand and must still import fuel.

Add this to economic sanctions that could grow even tighter if Tehran snubs Washington's offer to open negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, which Iran claims seeks only peaceful reactors but Israel and the West worry could develop atomic weapons.

"Well, let's just say it's not the easiest time in Iran these days," said Ilan Berman, an Iranian affairs specialist at the American Foreign Policy Council.

Ahmadinejad's opponents have pounced. His conservative challenger, Mohsen Rezaei, has accused Ahmadinejad of pushing Iran's economy to "the edge of a precipice." The leading reformist candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, has sounded like Ahmadinejad did four years ago: vowing to fight corruption and fix the economy.

Ahmadinejad has responded with his populist instincts on a huge scale. His office has sharply boosted its yearlong program of handing out checks of up to 1 million rials, or about $100, in poor neighborhoods and villages. Earlier this month, it announced that the payouts would expand to another 5.5 million people in rural areas throughout Iran. Many of the same regions are also in line for free potatoes, oranges and tomatoes.

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