Iran’s mixed signals challenge Obama

Reporter's sentence reconsidered
Ahmadinejad made a rare request to Tehran's chief prosecutor to allow Saberi and a jailed Canadian-Iranian blogger the chance to fully defend themselves. Then the judiciary chief ordered a full investigation of Saberi's case during appeal. On Tuesday, the judiciary spokesman said her sentence might be reconsidered — a hint it could be commuted.

Ahmadinejad could have his eye on the June 12 election in softening his stance on the case. Though he has the backing of powerful hard-liners, his popularity is waning among voters who say he spends too much time lashing out at the U.S. and Israel and not enough trying to fix the economy, which suffers from high inflation and unemployment.

His top opponent is former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, a reformist who supports better ties with the United States and appeals to many younger Iranians, who make up about 40 percent of eligible voters.

"Ahmadinejad is in an awkward position because his hard-line political backers are averse to warming relations with the U.S., yet he has to appeal to a young electorate which overwhelmingly favors restoring relations with Washington," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Invited to talks
Analysts say Ahmadinejad is also trying to gain favor with Washington, which broke off ties with Iran after the 1979 Islamic revolution. The U.S. and the other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany have invited Iran to a new round of nuclear talks — a move that would bring the two adversaries to the same table.

"His intervention is a political decision aimed at paving the way to resume ties with the U.S. and get concessions from Washington," said Iranian legal affairs expert Saleh Nikbakht.

Iran's nuclear program has been the most contentious issue between the U.S. and Tehran. Washington says it is secretly aimed at building atomic weapons in violation of Iran's treaty commitments. Oil-rich Iran denies that, saying the program is for using nuclear reactors to generate electricity.

U.S. officials say the Obama administration may be willing for Iran to continue enrichment while negotiations are under way — although they insist a halt remains the ultimate goal.

Some analysts say Iran may be holding Saberi as a bargaining chip in a complex political game, expecting concessions from Washington in return for her release. U.S. officials have indicated Iran would gain goodwill if the Iranians "responded in a positive way" to demands to free the journalist.

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