Adam and Danny are favorites to win ‘Idol’

Lil has one of the best voices in the competition, which she showed in the early stages. But since a disappointing Motown Week, she's never worked her way out of a downward spiral, and got the second-lowest number of votes a week ago.

Her odds of winning are small right now because the judges don't believe in her. She's the number-one draft pick who impressed in early workouts, but struggled once the games began, and Simon has made it very clear that she needs to rediscover herself in a hurry.

That's not an impossibility. This is the same woman who according to one report was a guaranteed pick for the final four. Of course, the other woman in that group was Alexis Grace, who's been out of this for a couple of months already. Without a big-time performance this week, Lil is likely to join her on the sidelines.

Almost no chance
Matt Giraud (0.5 percent chance of winning)
Anoop Desai (0.5 percent chance of winning)

Matt Giraud and Anoop Desai have traveled similar "Idol" paths. Both lost out in the first semifinal heat, and were relegated to the wild-card pool. Both were saved at the last minute, — quite literally in Anoop's case — becoming the last two singers to earn berths in the finals.

And for the most part, both have justified that faith. They’re unique, they’re fun, they’ve had their good moments and their bad moments.

But neither of them has a realistic chance to win. They don’t have enough of a fan base, and they haven’t shown the star potential that they would need to last much longer. It wouldn’t be a shock to see them standing together on Wednesday as the next two singers to go home. 

Craig Berman is a writer in Washington, D.C.

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