6 years later, Iraq better but still shaky

Much of the country is quiet, including the three Kurdish provinces of the north, the Shiite south and the Sunni-dominated Anbar province, where local tribes turned against al-Qaida.

Baghdad's parks are jammed on weekends with families only now feeling safe enough to venture from their own neighborhoods.

A survey of 2,228 Iraqis questioned nationwide last month for ABC News, BBC and Japan's NHK, found that 85 percent believed the current situation was good or very good — up 23 percent from last year.

About 59 percent felt safe in their neighborhoods, up 22 percent from last year, the survey said.

"We feel there's been a significant security improvement during the past months," said Ahmed Mahmoud Hussein, a health ministry employee in east Baghdad. "If sectarianism is wiped out and the security forces are equipped in a proper way, I think the country will see stability within five years."

Shifting loyalties
But stability is difficult to measure in a country with a long history of underground movements — including Saddam Hussein's Baath party — and a tradition of tribal and other groups switching sides.

Sheiks who once cheered Saddam later worked with extremist groups and now proclaim their loyalty to the U.S.-backed government, and no one can be sure where their loyalties may go tomorrow.

In Wasit province, a Shiite area south of Baghdad, officials estimate major crimes such as kidnappings, murders and robberies have soared by 50 percent in the past two months. Aziz al-Amarah, an Interior Ministry commander, blames the rise on power struggles among local political parties.

Against this backdrop is the absence of power-sharing agreements among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds that the U.S. has long believed were essential to ensuring lasting stability.

And what about the oil?
Legislation to manage the giant oil industry and distribute its wealth has been deadlocked in parliament for two years.

The central government and the Kurds have made little progress in resolving claims to a 300-mile swath of disputed territory in the north, including the oil-rich area around Kirkuk.

U.S. officials privately believe there is a very real chance of armed conflict between government troops and armed forces of the self-ruled Kurdish regional administration.

Many Iraqis fear that the relative calm simply means threat groups are laying low until the Americans leave.

"Iraq will face difficult economic situations for long time. ... The political process is still at a crossroads," Iraq's Shiite vice president, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, said last week. "The war is not over but it has just begun."

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