‘Dancing’ relies on four main ingredients

If you’re addicted to “Survivor” or “The Amazing Race,” you can at least hide behind the fact that these shows are logically interesting, simply because real people care about winning a million dollars, so they act in dramatic and unexpected ways when you wave money in front of them.

Let’s face it: you could stage a one-million-dollar IKEA-furniture assembly contest, and it would be the most intense and compelling hour of hammering and cam-bolting ever aired.

“Dancing With The Stars” lacks that element. The stakes are about as low as they can be, considering that there are community bowling leagues that give out better trophies, and those probably come with a free shoe rental.

In fact, winning isn’t even very important relative to the actual hot-blooded passion that motivates “Dancing” contenders, which is moving from C-list to B-list and improving their odds of appearing in “Us” magazine. After all, the biggest celebrity makeovers the show has ever performed have benefited Lisa Rinna, Mario Lopez and Joey Fatone, none of whom won.

What’s more, because it happens live week-to-week, episodes can’t be tweaked and massaged to create coherent narratives or make sure you don’t miss anything — or anyone — that will be important later. Attempts at storytelling are necessarily improvisational.

Add to that the fact that the show is carefully spit-polished to make everyone (except the occasional Master P slacker) look good, and it’s hard to understand how it musters any dramatic tension at all.

Nevertheless, in spite of lacking high stakes and traditional narratives while heavily featuring the ham-handed dirty jokes of judge Bruno Tonioli, “Dancing” remains one of the most popular shows on television. As a new season kicks off Monday night (ABC, 8 p.m.), it’s a good time to review: What in the world makes this thing work at all, and does this year’s unholy stew look like it’s got the right ingredients?

Four important ingredients
As it turns out, there are four basic marks every season needs to hit and can be expected to hit — the trick is figuring out how it’s going to hit them all.

Actual good dancers. No season has ever gone without a genuinely talented dancer — or at least someone who passed for one. Even in the first, Stone-Age season, only a month long with a puny cast of six, there was John “J. Peterman” O’Hurley. Every season since has featured someone who was good from the first day.

It’s never clear exactly who might emerge in this role — who would have predicted Joey Fatone, who appeared to be N’SYNC’s resident graceless moose? There are no obviously balletic Olympians or song-and-dance ringers this season — gymnast Shawn Johnson, while a solid bet, is more renowned as a firecracker than a swan. There are three musicians — country singer Chuck Wicks, former Go-Go Belinda Carlisle, and Lil’ Kim — but none of them sound like obvious breakout stars in dance, unless Belinda Carlisle is going to re-enact the “Head Over Heels” video.

With both Nancy O’Dell and Jewel dropping out with injuries, the show has two more spots to fill, and might find its good-luck charm there. Of course, one of the replacements is reportedly Holly Madison, Playboy model, who does not seem to have any dancing on her resumé, unless you count evading handsy customers at Hooters.

Personal drama. Some seasons, the show has wrung storylines from dancers refusing to follow the rules and making the judges angry, but all those variations on “He’s Such A Bad Boy, He Does LIFTS” have flopped. It’s also occasionally lucked into rumors (sometimes later shown to be true, sometimes not) about romantic relationships between celebrities and their partners, including Mario Lopez and Karina Smirnoff (true; now over), Sabrina Bryan and Mark Ballas (apparently at least partially true, but also now over) and Apolo Anton Ohno and Julianne Hough (apparently not true).

This season, they went for some extra touches by casting Chuck, who’s Julianne’s boyfriend, as her partner, as well as both the doomed Jewel and her husband, cowboy Ty Murray. That second one would have turned out better if she hadn’t broken both of her legs.

Just the right bad dancers. “Dancing” uses bad dancers in two roles: villains and clowns. Master P was a villain; the judges genuinely wanted his bad attitude and non-regulation shoes off the show. He embarrassed his partner, wouldn’t do as she asked, and generally acted like a petulant twelve-year-old dragged to a weekend canasta tournament.

This year, Steve-O, formerly of “Jackass,” is the obvious choice for villain. But given rumors that he’s pulled himself together in recent months, he could pull a switcheroo and emerge as some kind of ingratiating bad boy gone clean.

Last season’s Cloris Leachman was the clown, as were guys like Jerry Springer and George Hamilton. The most obvious clown candidates this season are David Alan Grier, because he’s a comedian, and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, because he’s older and does not appear particularly willowy of build. But clowns tend to be extravagant showmen; in that sense, Wozniak seems unlikely to fit the bill. Grier is closer, but clowns have traditionally been a bit older, and what if he turns out to be good?

Unlikely rises. Finally, there is the appeal of actual learning. Season two, in particular, benefited enormously from the slow build behind Drew Lachey (who went on to win). At first, he was good, but fairly obviously flawed in his technique, and as time went on, he genuinely worked to get better. When partner Cheryl Burke finally got him to stop hunching his shoulders, it felt genuinely like a victory, because he was actually getting better at something.

So a good season needs not only some good folks and some terrible folks; it needs some folks who are amenable to legitimate self-improvement. A nation turns its lonely eyes to you, Denise Richards.

Uh-oh.

Linda Holmes is a frequent contributor to msnbc.com

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