'Meet the Press' transcript for Feb. 15, 2009

MR. DAVID GREGORY:  Our issues this Sunday:  Day 26 of the Obama administration, and the $787 billion stimulus bill is on its way to the president's desk.  A legislative victory, but it was far from bipartisan.

(Videotape)

REP. JOHN BOEHNER (R-OH):  But a bill that was supposed to be about jobs, jobs, jobs has turned into a bill that's all about spending, spending and spending.

(End videotape)

MR. GREGORY:  When will Americans actually see some relief?  And what will the administration do to solve the other economic problems, banks and housing? All of this as another Cabinet nomination goes bad; Republican Senator Judd Gregg says never mind as Commerce secretary.

(Videotape)

SEN. JUDD GREGG (R-NH):  The bottom line is this was simply a bridge too far for me.

(End videotape)

MR. GREGORY:  What now?  Our guest:  senior adviser to President Obama, David Axelrod.

Then the political fallout from a productive yet tumultuous first three weeks. Our political roundtable weighs in:  Ron Brownstein, columnist for the National Journal; Eugene Robinson, columnist for The Washington Post; Roger Simon, chief political columnist for Politico; and Kimberly Strassel, columnist and editorial board member of The Wall Street Journal.

But first, the man who was chief strategist for candidate Obama and is now senior adviser to President Obama, David Axelrod.

Welcome back to MEET THE PRESS.

MR. DAVID AXELROD:  Great to be here, David.

MR. GREGORY:  Certainly a productive time and a huge legislative victory with this stimulus package.  The president's claimed victory.  And here's the bottom line question:  What will this stimulus plan do to ease the recession this year?

MR. AXELROD:  Well, I think that there's going to be some immediate activity. You know, let's, let's understand, this is the worst economic downturn we've had since World War II.  So our first mission is to try and slow the trajectory of it and turn it around.  This will do that.  This will help do that.  We believe in the next couple of years that it will create three and a half million jobs.  That's going to be very important.  We're also going to prevent the layoff of key personnel in states, like teachers, police, firefighters.  We're going to help those who are caught in the, in the brunt of this with longer unemployment insurance, helping them with their health care.  And ultimately we're going to put people to work doing the work that America needs done in energy, in health care, in education, rebuilding our roads, bridges, dams and levees.  That's going to have a long-term effect and a short-term effect.  But a lot of those projects are going to begin soon. But...

MR. GREGORY:  But--yeah.

MR. AXELROD:  ...let's be clear, though, it's not going to be an overnight turnaround.  The president's been clear; it took a long time for us to get in this mess, it's going to take a while for us to get out of it.

MR. GREGORY:  Unemployment is at 7.6 percent.  That doesn't even capture people who have stopped looking for work.

MR. AXELROD:  Yes.

MR. GREGORY:  Will this stimulus plan prevent unemployment from reaching 10 percent, do you think?

MR. AXELROD:  Well, that's our hope.  That's our hope.  There's no doubt that without it that's what--that's where we were looking, double-digit unemployment.  And that's what we're trying to forestall.  We want to turn this thing around, and we think that this will, will happen.  That's why the president had such a sense of urgency of acting now.  As you know, we lost 600,000 jobs last month, over one and a half million in the last three months. The trajectory is horrible.  This should help put the brakes on that and slow it down.

MR. GREGORY:  So you talk about jobs.  The president has promised to save or create actually four million jobs.  Your own economic reporting indicates that that won't be achieved until the fourth quarter of 2010.  So as you say, this is not immediate.  But there's one prominent economist who says maybe that goal won't be reached.  This is how it was reported in The Washington Post: "The final package `is just not going to pack the same jobs punch' as some earlier versions, which cost as much as $100 billion more, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of moodyseconomy.com, whose analyses have been cited by both White House officials as well as congressional Democrats.  Zandi estimates the measure will created only about 2.2 million jobs by the end of 2010, leaving unemployment hovering around 10 percent and probably forcing lawmakers to undertake another stimulus plan." Another stimulus plan?

MR. AXELROD:  Well, look, let's see how this works out.  I respect Mr. Zandi, but there are all kinds of analyses by many economists saying different things.  We believe that the three to four million number is an, an accurate number, a good guess.  But this is--this--it's--you know, there are some unknowns here.  Let's give this a try.  We think this, this is the most ambitious recovery package in the, in the history of this country.

MR. GREGORY:  Right.

MR. AXELROD:  And let's move forward with it.

MR. GREGORY:  But is it ambitious enough?  I mean, there are other economists--Paul Krugman writing this week, citing the Congressional Budget Office, saying that the economy is underproducing to the tune of what could be $2.9 trillion.  So a nearly $800 billion stimulus package, as huge as that is, may not be enough.

MR. AXELROD:  Well, let's, let's see how it goes, David.  We think this will have a multiplier effect and that, and that ultimately it's going to pay off, it's going to turn this around, it's going to break the, the hard edge of this, of this recession.  The interesting thing is, you know, we, we just had a debate this weekend.  You heard people saying it was too large, you heard people saying it was too small.

MR. GREGORY:  Yeah.

MR. AXELROD:  We believe it's, it's, it's where it should be...

MR. GREGORY:  But...

MR. AXELROD:  ...and we want to move forward.

MR. GREGORY:  The president said his metric was four million jobs.  If you have benchmarks along the way, before fourth quarter 2010, if those are not being achieved, will you go back to Congress and ask for another stimulus plan?

MR. AXELROD:  I'm not going to presuppose that, David.  That's a hypothetical I'm not going to deal with.  We have great confidence in what we're doing here, that it's going to produce jobs in the short run and economic progress in the long run.

MR. GREGORY:  Mm-hmm.

MR. AXELROD:  And, and that's the assumption we're making.

MR. GREGORY:  OK.  There is some criticism about how this stimulus plan actually pays out, where the stimulus is.  Is it front-loaded, is it back-loaded?  The Economist editorialized this way:  "The fiscal stimulus plan has some obvious flaws.  Too much of the boost to demand is back-loaded to 2010 and beyond.  The compromise bill is larded with spending determined more by Democratic lawmakers' pet projects than the--by the efficiency with which the economy will be boosted." Now, here is what The Economist is referring to. This is an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office, and you see it on the screen here.  In 2009, just 22 percent, almost 23 percent is spent out.  The total outlays for 2010 and beyond is the majority, over 77 percent.  Is it too late?

MR. AXELROD:  Well, there've been discussions back and forth about this.  We believe that 75 percent of this money will be, will be spent out in the first 18 months.  So there are disputes over, over that.  Look, what we're--first of all, a large part of the package is helping people who are caught in this recession; extending unemployment benefits, health care and so on.  That's going to have a stimulative effect, everybody agrees on that.  There's aid to the states in there to prevent layoffs, and that is going to have a stimulative effect.  There are tax cuts in there that we feel are going to have a stimulative effect.  And obviously, putting people to work rebuilding this country on energy projects, infrastructure projects, rebuilding classrooms all over this country to bring them up to 21st century standards and so on, all of these things are going to have an impact.  And those things are going to happen quickly.

MR. GREGORY:  But you're depending on a psychological bounce that comes from the passage of the stimulus, when the reality is the government outlays payout rather slowly, infrastructure spending pays out rather slowly.  There's questions about whether government contracting will work as efficiently as possible.  Do you run the risk of losing precious ground during a time when the economy is worsening day by day?

MR. AXELROD:  Look, obviously this is a complex task, administering this program, and we are going to devote significant resources to making sure that it's done right in terms of oversight, transparency.  People will know what's happening and we'll know what's happening.  But there are a lot of projects all over this country that are ready to go that have been vetted and cleared, they're--and were just waiting for funding.  That will begin very quickly.

More from NBC News broadcasts   Petraeus: ‘Realistic’ to begin transition in 2011   Huffington: War ‘not a right-left issue’ More going to extremes for shot at fame?   One-on-one with Bill & Melinda Gates One man’s trash becomes another’s home Low-tech tactics boost border fight Follow on Twitter: Making a Difference

MORE FROM MEET THE PRESS

Meet the Press Section Front

Nov. 29: Rick Warren, Bill & Melinda Gates Nov. 22: Senate roundtable, Brinker, Snyderman Nov. 15: Clinton, Duncan, Gingrich, Sharpton Nov. 8: Casey, Barbour, Rendell, roundtable, Brokaw Nov. 1: Tim Geithner, David Plouffe, roundtable Oct. 25: Cornyn, Schumer, Burnett, Sorkin, roundtable Oct. 18: Jarrett, Dodd, Kyl, Shriver, Podesta Oct. 11: Levin, Graham, McCaffrey, Myers, roundtable Oct. 4: Ambassador Susan Rice, roundtable Sept. 27: Bill Clinton, Paterson, Kyl, Webb Meet the Press Section Front   Add Meet the Press headlines to your news reader: