2009 set to be Iraq's year of political change

updated 2:43 p.m. ET Dec. 18, 2008

BAGHDAD —The U.S. military will take its first steps toward ending its combat role in Iraq in 2009, after a sharp drop in violence this year — and Iraqi voters will choose leaders in elections that could provide a key clue to whether the security gains will endure.

Those events will make 2009 a watershed year in Iraq — perhaps the most significant since the U.S.-led invasion nearly six years ago.

If things go well, Iraq could be on its way to relative stability — if not the liberal, Western-style democracy foreseen when the U.S. led the 2003 invasion to oust Saddam Hussein.

But failure could lead to a new spiral of violence. The risk of failure is high.

The suspicion and bitterness among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds that fueled the conflict still run deep, even though attacks have fallen by 80 percent since last March, according to the U.S. military.

Iraq remains a shattered nation
Iraq remains a shattered country, where millions lack security, clean drinking water, jobs, electricity — and hope.

Nevertheless, Iraq's prospects may be better than at any time since the war began.

In 2008, U.S. and Iraqi forces gained the upper hand in the fight against Sunni and Shiite militants, reducing violence in Baghdad and other cities to levels not seen in five years. The U.S. military mission is already more peacekeeping than fighting a war.

The coming year will tell whether the Iraqis can build a political system in which the different religious and ethnic groups feel power is shared fairly.

Regional elections Jan. 31 in 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces, and nationwide parliamentary balloting by the end of 2009, offer Iraqis a chance to select leaders they believe represent their interests.

Most Sunnis and many Shiites boycotted the last regional elections in January 2005. Many Iraqis also believe the national parliament chosen later that year no longer represents their interests, and they are eager for change.

Much will depend on how the new U.S. administration manages the draw-down of its 150,000-strong military force here. President-elect Barack Obama wants to shift resources to Afghanistan and the economic crisis at home.

New U.S.-Iraq security pact
Under the newly approved U.S.-Iraq security pact, all U.S. troops must pull out of Iraqi cities by the end of June and leave the country entirely by the end of 2011. Already, the Pentagon plans to send home about 8,000 troops by February.

Obama wants all combat troops out of Iraq by the spring of 2010, leaving a residual force of trainers, air controllers, advisers and logistics soldiers until the end of the mission.

The incoming president, however, has promised to consult his commanders and the Iraqi government before ordering withdrawals.

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