Big 3 woes don’t give Japan’s automakers joy

Toyota, Japan's top automaker that makes the Camry sedan and Prius hybrid, has already slashed its profit forecast for the fiscal year through March to 550 billion yen ($5.9 billion), or about a third of its previous year's earnings. Expectations are rife another downward revision is coming.

For now, there are even alarming signs the Japanese may be falling in the footsteps of the U.S. automakers, said Endo.

GM, which has already idled five factories this year, announced Friday it is temporarily closing 21 factories across North America. Toyota has also suspended production at several North American plants in recent months.

The region is critical for Japan's automakers — both Toyota and Honda sell more vehicles in North America than they do in Japan.

"There is absolutely no way in my view that the Big Three's woes can work as a plus for the Japanese automakers," said Tsuyoshi Mochimaru, analyst for Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

"So what if there might be a market-share increase some years ahead? The pie itself is shrinking," he added. "Sales volume is plunging. And that's why all the automakers are suffering."

So far this year, Toyota appears to be on pace to overtake GM in global vehicle sales. Last year, Toyota's group sales rose to 9.366 million vehicles, just shy of GM's 9.37 million.

Toyota's Homma notes that 15 or 20 years ago, when there was a backlash among some American politicians and consumers toward Japanese products, Toyota may have gotten criticized as benefiting from — or even causing — U.S. automaker's demise.

But these days, Toyota is no longer viewed as foreign, and consumers understand that Toyota employs American workers and purchases from American suppliers, he said.

"We are a member of the American auto industry," Homma said. "Without (a bailout), chaos is sure to come."

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