In this global crisis, the U.S. has opportunity
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His political rivals and other critics accuse Ahmadinejad of squandering the opportunity presented by soaring oil prices over the past three years and failing to use the higher income to insulate Iran for tougher times.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says she hopes the economic shock from falling oil prices "will lead Iran to take a more reasonable course" in its standoff with the U.S. and other international powers over the country's nuclear program.
Across the broader Middle East, tumbling oil prices also have left their mark.
The economic slowdown may cut into the ability of militant groups based in the region to finance terrorist operations elsewhere. But plunging oil prices will make it harder for Iraq to finance needed renovations to their oil fields and could effect the ability of states friendly to the U.S. to bankroll anti-terrorism programs.
"Some states that have been good at keeping dissent in their countries tamped down with all kinds of subsidies — and Saudi Arabia is one — will have fewer resources to do that with," said Dan Benjamin, a former Middle East specialist with the National Security Council in the Clinton administration. "Saudi Arabia does run on oil and this will not be fun for them," said Benjamin, now a scholar at the Brookings Institution.
Russia is confronting its worst economic crisis in a decade. The need to focus on righting its domestic economy could lead Moscow to moderate aggressive foreign policies.
Still, the crisis has allowed the Kremlin to take greater control over oil companies and other industries that Vladimir Putin, the former president and current prime minister, contends should never have been privatized in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The jury is still out on whether the global economic crisis will increase terrorist attacks, as some analysts suggest. But, clearly, al-Qaida and its affiliates are prepared to take credit for the downturn. Some note that the horrific attacks this month in Mumbai, India, were in the heart of an important economic hub.
"For the last several years, Osama bin Laden has spoken again and again to his followers about the need to go after economic targets, that economic targets should be at the top of the list," said Bruce Riedel a senior national security adviser to three presidents. "Al-Qaida believes that it's winning that war, that the global economic meltdown is a sign of its victory in the war,"
Bin Laden put out a video statement one year ago in which he talked about the home mortgage bubble in the United States and the impending crisis on Wall Street.
Either way, Obama inherits a full plate of issues in which economic and foreign-policy concerns are intertwined.
Going for him, suggests former U.N. Ambassador Thomas Pickering, is what appears to be a huge pool of international good will.
But, Pickering warns, this reservoir may not last long. "Every priority he selects will make someone happy and every priority he fails to select will disappoint somebody, so he's now at the zenith of his political popularity internationally unless he can figure a new way around this."
Pickering suggests Obama address various international issues at some length early in his presidency "so people around the world will know how in fact he fits the world together." It also might help if Obama can demonstrate that the United States under his leadership "can walk and chew gum" at the same time, Pickering said.
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