‘Survivor Gabon’ winner? What about Bob?

Good versus evil. Strong versus weak. Cool kids versus nerds. Favorites versus underdogs.

However the two groups of “Survivor Gabon” cast members are defined, this season will end with an unlikely winner, as one of the evil, weak and/or underdog players will win $1 million Sunday night.

Those that have been voted out blame this season's multiple tribe shake-up twists, which split up a strong alliance and a strong tribe, Kota. Still, those who remain in the game — three members of the weaker Fang tribe and two of the weaker Kota members — used those twists to outmaneuver their opponents and take control.

Now, a teary actor masquerading as a pin-up model, a nerdy gamer, a physical trainer, a hairdresser and a high school physics teacher remain. All except Bob, the teacher, were originally on a tribe that lost challenge after challenge, and they took control, voting out a doctor, two lawyers, and others. Last night, they got rid of another one of their own, an Olympic gold medalist who performs poorly at challenges.

That happened after that powerful alliance of the apparently powerless fractured in recent weeks, and those ramifications will be felt as the final five turns on itself even more, which will undoubtedly happen.

Here's a look at who remains, and how likely it is they'll win the game when it concludes live Sunday.

Sugar
Chance of winning: Strangely high for someone who's done so little.

Jeffrey R. Staab / CBS Throughout the competition, Jessica "Sugar" Kiper has appeared happy and carefree, at least when she wasn't tearing up.

Sugar has spent more time than anyone else at Exile, which became her own personal paradise, although she had guilt for being there. After finding the hidden immunity idol, she spent subsequent trips lounging in a hammock, swimming and sunbathing. She seems happy and carefree, and looks like she's enjoying herself, at least when she's not tearing up.

However, Sugar's strategic game hasn't been very strong. Most recently, she bailed on her alliance with Kenny and Crystal because they plotted against Matty, and that made her cry. Earlier, she voted out her strongest ally in the game, Ace, after believing Ken's lies, and yet continued to trust him when he approached her to vote out Charlie. Perhaps her most noteworthy strategic move was using Bob's fake immunity idol to blindside — but mostly humiliate — Randy, who she loathed.

Yet despite the fact that Corinne and other jury members may have loathed her, Sugar has persevered, and one-third of the game is to simply “outlast,” and we'll see Sunday if the jury values that more than “outwitting” or “outplaying.”

Bob
Chances of winning: Extremely high, if he makes it to the final three, which he probably won't.

Bow-tied Buff-wearing Bob has outplayed the others on his tribe, at least when it comes to challenges, especially recently. He's won the last four individual challenges in a row — two immunity, two reward — and if he keeps winning, he'll just march right into the final three, as Jeff Probst suggested during Tribal Council. Not bad for the second-oldest cast member (he's 58).

Bob has also outcrafted, constructing two incredibly believable fake immunity idols, one of which he gave to Randy as part of Sugar's strategy, and one of which he used to try to save Corinne. Those plays and subsequent moves indicated that Bob has finally started playing the game hard. He's also essentially lied to Ken by promising to give up individual immunity if he won it (an opportunity Ken would have used to his advantage and voted Bob out), and challenged Sugar after she humiliated Randy at Tribal Council.

If someone else did those things, they would seem sketchy, but Bob is so well-respected and above-board that right now, it seems like he can do no wrong. That probably means he'll be voted out before the final three, unless he can keep his winning streak up.

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