How the GOP will define itself in '10 campaigns

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - The 2010 elections may seem to exist only in the distant future, but candidates are already raising money and plotting possible strategies.

And the beleaguered Republicans, with a smaller minority than before last month’s elections, are already wondering how they'll define themselves and how their foes will define them in 2010.

Will voters see the GOP as the party of principled opposition to taxpayer bailouts of mismanaged companies?

Or will it be the party that let General Motors and Chrysler die, allowing millions of jobs to vanish?

There is, of course, a related question for 2010: At what point do president-elect Barack Obama and the Democrats “own” the economy as a campaign issue?

Republican pollster Whit Ayres said that while Democrats will try to portray the Republicans who vote against an auto bailout as job killers, “most Americans will recognize the fault lies more in Detroit than in Washington.”

Video   ‘Everyone’s helping their auto industries’ Dec. 5: NBC’s David Gregory talks to Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., and Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., about the automakers’ plea for taxpayer money. Stabenow makes the case that Detroit’s woes are part of a global crisis. Today show

An anti-Republican backlash?
But Democratic economist and former Clinton administration official Rob Shapiro said, “GOP opposition to the bailout seems to embody the general Republican approach of ‘no matter how bad things are, you’re on your own.’ Even though the public may oppose this bailout, they are going to even more strongly oppose deterioration in the economy without a bailout.” He said, “If the economy turns significantly worse after the failure of the auto companies, the public will blame it on those who helped create the conditions that let the economy deteriorate further.”

The 2010 Kentucky Senate race will be a good test case of how an incumbent Republican defends himself from Democratic attacks on the economy.

When he ran in 2004, Sen. Jim Bunning, a Republican, won his seat by only by only 1.4 percent — and the Cook Political report rates his 2010 race as a “toss-up.”

Although he did not show up for Thursday’s Banking Committee hearing, Bunning said two weeks ago that the essential issue is “whether the federal government should intervene in the private-sector economy. And I believe it should not.”

He added that if Chrysler and General Motors went into bankruptcy or liquidation, “I think that’s probably the best thing that can happen. Then there will be a reorganization and they’ll be able to jettison things they couldn’t ordinarily jettison, like health care benefits, like pension benefits and there will be someone to pick those up like the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.”

The firms would “may come out of bankruptcy a heck of a lot better off than they go into it.”

Ohio Republican supports aid
Contrast Bunning with his Republican neighbor from across the river in Ohio, Sen. George Voinovich, who's also up for re-election in 2010.

“Bankruptcy could trigger a deep recession and send us over the cliff. If these companies are allowed to fail, taxpayers will wonder why Congress failed to act,” said Voinovich two weeks ago.

That's when he stood alongside a band of Democrats to introduce legislation that would give carmakers $25 billion in funds which Congress has already appropriated for auto-industry conversion to more fuel efficient vehicles.

His support signals a backing of the parts suppliers and automotive factories in his state.

In fact, Voinovich was one of only two Republican sponsors of the legislation. The other? Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter, who's also running for re-election in 2010.

At Friday’s hearing at which the auto CEOs made their pleas for money, House Republicans were mostly hostile to the loan.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R- Texas, said, “Every industry in American is hurting today. Show me one that isn’t. Show me one that couldn’t be assisted and made more viable and more profitable with an additional $34 billion.”

Rep. Don Manzullo, R- Ill., whose Rockford-based district includes machine tool firms which depend on the auto industry, lashed out at the CEOs for not supporting tax incentives for Americans to buy cars.

“I want to make sure the people I represent are helped out, but the plans that you have given us are woefully insufficient because they do not address (consumer) demand,” Manzullo told the CEOs.

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