Brawl in aisle 9? Not this holiday season

Still, Baker, the consumer electronics analyst, thinks there can be advantages to a retail environment without a must-have item. A single hot item "helps a very specific piece of the market, but it’s not always a rising tide lifting all boats,” he said. “You get a very lopsided opportunity.”

But this year, that may be cold comfort. Even before the financial crisis hit in September, Baker said a weak holiday season already was expected for the technology industry. That’s because many people already have a house full of gadgets — such as music players and digital cameras — and don’t see the newest offerings as cheap enough, or enough of an improvement, to justify an upgrade.

“The growth in technology is starting to slow down,” he said.

Still, Baker said there may be some pockets of strength this holiday season. He’s expecting some shoppers to focus on purchases that can be shared by the whole family, such as large-screen televisions, notebook computers and video game consoles.

Gary Rudman, president of GTR Consulting, which tracks the habits of teens and young adults, is expecting more people to give as gifts the type of “necessity” gadgets that they might, in a stronger economy, have bought without needing a special occasion. That means a GPS system, updated laptop computer or replacement cell phone might end up under the tree this year.

He expects teens to ask for new technology gadgets this holiday season, but he isn’t seeing a trend toward one particular piece of hardware.

“There’s definitely a desire to still get those pieces of technology that they always covet — the sort of iPhones of the world — (but) there doesn’t seem to be that one ‘it’ item this year,” Rudman said.

Economics aside, Byrne said there may be other advantages to not having a must-have item dominating news coverage as we head toward the holidays, especially given the more pressing issues on many peoples’ minds.

“It’s kind of a relief that we’re talking about, ‘Is Hillary going to be secretary of state?’ rather than, ‘Where can I get an Elmo?’” he quipped last week.

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