Recession-proof? Maybe not this time

“Not only is the economy slowing and there’s less business, but we’re dividing it additional times with new properties,” Schwer said.

Conventional wisdom also has held that people will smoke and drink alcohol even when budgets are tight. But that assumption is now being tested. Altria Group, whose holdings include cigarette maker Philip Morris USA, recently told The Associated Press that it had started to cut jobs because of economic turmoil.

Even if they are cutting back elsewhere, many have believed that people will continue to think of their cable television as another utility, like water or electricity, and keep paying the bill even when their budgets get tight. But this time around, Flickinger said his research is showing that premium television is one of the first items people are cutting back on in parts of the country that have been hard-hit by layoffs or other labor strife.

“The first thing to go is cable, the second thing to go is the phone, the third thing to go is the second car and then the fourth thing to go is the house,” Flickinger said.

While it’s still early days, there are signs those individual decisions are starting to impact providers. Satellite TV provider Dish Network Inc. recently reported a net loss of 10,000 subscribers in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, and it cited the weak economy as one factor in the loss of business. In a regulatory filing, the company also warned that bad economic conditions could impact consumer demand for pay-TV services going forward.

Those cable providers who have expanded into Internet and phone offerings may be better poised to survive a downturn because they have more diverse sources of revenue.

As the economic downturn continues, many also will be watching closely to see how much it will affect people’s appetite for sporting events. Rodney Fort, a professor of sports management at the University of Michigan, expects that sports revenue will be impacted by the downturn, with hockey and baseball feeling more of a pinch than basketball and football.

Still, he said it’s hard to say how much any sport will be impacted at this point because there isn’t reliable data from similar downturns in the past. While it’s true that attendance famously rose at sporting events during the Great Depression, Fort said it’s not clear that revenue also improved.

Fort also noted that the sports industry has changed substantially in recent decades. Not only has television revenue become much more important, but ticket sales have become more dependent on high-income fans and corporations willing to shell out for pricey boxes and season tickets.

AP Recovery's pace slower than first thought   The economy is growing modestly, with consumers too wary about spending to invigorate the recovery.   Fed sees gradual economic recovery IMF chief: Global economy still fragile Watchdog: Stimulus job creation data flawed Dutch give ABN Amro billions in new bailout

Many also have traditionally believed that people will continue to splurge on a night out at the movies even when times are tight. But some expect that theory to be tested this time around as well. That’s partly because the cost of buying a movie ticket and snacks has risen substantially in recent years, and partly because it’s become easier to rent a DVD or get one for free from the library, and pop your own popcorn.

“(Watching) a DVD on the widescreen TV sets that a lot of people already have is a pretty good substitute for going to the movies, so I wouldn’t bet my life on the fortunes of movie theaters,” said Mayland, the economist.

Nevertheless, some in the industry remain optimistic. In a conference call with analysts last month, Regal Entertainment Group Chief Executive Mike Campbell conceded that prices have gone up, but said a trip to the movie theater remained less expensive than other forms of entertainment.

“Our industry is probably as recession resistant, based on historical facts, as any that I'm aware of,” Campbell said in the earnings conference call.

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