Could Obama's election lead to Iran talks?

Ahmadinejad gone too far?
So are efforts at outreach pointless, since Khamenei ultimately makes the call?

No, insist supporters of diplomacy.

For one thing, Iran's people are much less hostile toward the United States. Many detest their country's current isolation, which hurts their pocketbooks, their pride and their children's future.

Hard-line clerics, even Khamenei, do have to pay some attention to public opinion, and even some hard-liners say Ahmadinejad has gone too far toward inflammatory rhetoric against Israel and the United States.

Ahmadinejad also is deeply unpopular because of Iran's failing economy. That could force Khamenei to give a new president some leeway to repair relations and ease the international isolation damaging the economy.

To take advantage of such a complex dynamic, Obama should focus first on small "confidence-building measures" such as cooperation on Afghanistan, where Washington and Tehran's interests have some overlap, supporters say. Obama's stated intention to draw down U.S. troops in Iraq also will remove a key tension.

Nuclear roadblock
Yet the central disputes remain unsolved: Iran's nuclear program and the regime's hostility toward Israel.

Even a more moderate Iranian president is unlikely to give ground on the nuclear program, with Khamenei holding the line and genuine public support for it in Iran. Iran insists the program is for peaceful purposes only.

Obama may think "he can convince Iran to give up its nuclear program, but this is a red line for Iran," said Saudi political analyst Khaled al-Dakhil.

Even on the nuclear issue, however, careful diplomacy on other issues could make some headway, said George Perkovich, a nonproliferation expert at the Carnegie Endowment.

Iran's intentions are key. What the world really cares about is preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons and threatening to use them.

Giving Iran a greater sense of security could make the country more likely to compromise, say Perkovich and others.

Toward that end, the U.S. might, for example, offer to broker a regional group including Iran and surrounding Arab countries to work on security issues, Perkovich said.

Dialogue equals weakness?
Such a move could increase Iran's feeling of security, since it now feels surrounded by hostile Arab neighbors and American troops, and believes America's ultimate aim is to overthrow its clerical regime. Retired Gen. John Abizaid, the former U.S. commander for the region, has been among those who say the West could live with a nuclear Iran as long as tensions eased.

Trust, however, is central to any such effort and trust remains in short supply.

Israel has the most to directly fear from Iran.

Facing looming elections of its own, its people are highly focused on Ahmadinejad's frequent calls for Israel's destruction and the long-range missiles Iran has developed to reach its territory.

Is hostility toward Israel another immutable pillar of Iran's regime, or is it something that could be talked out — and reassurances given — in delicate, perhaps secret negotiations?

Right now, no Israeli official believes so. Tzipi Livni, the more-moderate of the two candidates vying to lead Israel, has already warned Obama that "dialogue at this time is liable to broadcast weakness."

More from msnbc.com Ice addict heads for poles, Everest | Trek posts Daily Nightly: Tim McGraw helps neighbors in need Were you paying attention? Take our weekly quiz World Blog: China puts foot down on 'Oba Mao' T-shirts Stimulus tracker: See where millions of dollars went Move over, feds — locals try stimulus, too  On Twitter: Breaking news updates | Weird and wild

MORE FROM MIDEAST & N. AFRICA

Mideast & N. Africa Section Front

Brothers who fled Yemen can stay in U.S. Federal case threatens mosques Palestinians urge cancellation of election Diplomats question role of Iran nuke plant Iraq prison head, staff detained after breakout Mideast & N. Africa Section Front   Add Mideast & N. Africa headlines to your news reader: