Who will be Obama's top diplomat?

WASHINGTON - The carpets are shampooed and the computers are set up.

Office space for about two-dozen State Department guests sits ready to receive President-elect Barack Obama's foreign policy transition team — the first major transition for the agency since the Clinton administration turned the keys over to George W. Bush.

So when the next transition officially takes place on January 20^th, 2009, who will be the nation’s top diplomat? And what will the new secretary face?

Both sides of the aisle
The list of priorities to be handed over — along with the reins — will be long.

President Obama's administration will inherit two wars, a defiant Iran, an unstable and volatile Pakistan, an aggressive Russia, and a Middle East peace process unresolved.

In the running to take on this daunting to-do list is Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel. He carries the reputation of a leading foreign policy voice in the Senate, and has already announced plans to retire after his current term. Hagel has already built a relationship with Obama while traveling with him to the Middle East earlier this year.

Hagel broke with his party in July 2007 on a troop withdrawal vote, making him one of only three Republican Senators to then side with Democrats. Even though he, himself, never endorsed a candidate, his wife did publicly speak out for Obama in early October, saying "This isn't anti-McCain. This is pro-Obama. I'm just convinced he's the right person."

Another possible Republican pick is Sen. Dick Lugar. The senior senator from Indiana chaired the Foreign Relations Committee before Sen. Biden, and could transfer that working relationship with the Vice President-elect to the White House. Obama specifically named Lugar during the final Presidential debate as one of the foreign policy influences who has "shaped my ideas and who will be surrounding me in the White House."

However, a spokesman for Lugar told NBC News that the Senator had "definitely" ruled out the possibility, and looks forward to improving bipartisan cooperation on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Former Presidential candidate John Kerry’s also made the rounds on the speculation circuit before a new President had even been elected. As a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee, Kerry would bring the same wealth of policy experience and a working relationship with Biden. He was an early Obama-backer and publicly defended the candidate’s foreign policy views during the campaign.

Some even credit Kerry, who chose Obama to deliver the 2004 Democratic Convention keynote, with launching Obama to the national stage. But a President elected on “change” may not see fit to include his party’s 2004 Presidential candidate.

And then there is Sam Nunn, a former U.S. Senator and the current CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Nunn brings a Washington insider's experience on national defense. His work on disarmament in Russia and the former Soviet republics means a unique understanding of a region important to the U.S.

He is also no stranger to applying diplomatic pressure. In 1994 he was part of a three-man team dispatched by President Clinton to force the departure of the Haitian military dictator. His nuclear know-how could prove useful in dealing with Pakistan, Iran and North Korea as well.

Global hot spots
No matter who assumes the agency’s helm, formidable challenges lie ahead.

Like in Iraq, where U.S. diplomats work alongside 152,000 U.S. troops.

Obama has pledged to end the war in Iraq by withdrawing all U.S. combat brigades by April 2010, just 16 months after taking office. The Bush administration could leave office without a formal agreement governing the status of forces on the ground. The task of hammering out that security agreement would then fall to Obama’s secretary of state. Next year’s elections in Iraq mean the U.S., specifically the secretary of state, will also have to build diplomatic bridges with a new set of Iraqi leaders.

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In Afghanistan, Obama has advocated sending in additional U.S. troops and providing additional funds for civil programs like agriculture reform. With Taliban and al Qaida violence on the rise, the U.S. may consider following Pakistan's approach and engaging the Taliban in reconciliation talks. The next secretary will be a key player in making the calculation of whether or not to talk to the enemy.

Across the border in Pakistan, where a new government works to get settled, the Bush administration has walked a fine line of maintaining a low diplomatic profile while taking a more aggressive military stance. Pakistan has spoken out strongly against U.S. unilateral strikes across the border, a tactic Obama supports in cases where there is "actionable intelligence" for potential targets. Obama's secretary of state will have to work to build a relationship with Pakistan's new leaders and mend fences with a Pakistani public angered by U.S. policy.

Fences also require mending on U.S.-Russian relations, which plummeted this summer after the Russian invasion of Georgia. Obama has called for an improvement in this "strategic" relationship, vital to diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran and North Korea. The next secretary of state will be swimming into increasingly unfriendly waters establishing a relationship with his or her Russian counterpart.

In Iran, the Bush administration recently changed its tack, adopting a policy of engagement this summer and sending an envoy for talks in July. There are plans to announce the opening of an interests section soon, meaning an increased level of engagement in the years to come.

This falls in line with the approach Obama has promised to adopt, along with increased economic pressure. But the task of further defining this volatile relationship — either by solidifying the ties or going back to isolating Iran — would fall to the next secretary of state.

The Middle East, embroiled in a 60-year unresolved conflict, remains high on the list of diplomatic priorities facing the next secretary. Even in her final days in office, Secretary Rice continues to work with the Israelis and Palestinians towards a peace agreement, but all sides acknowledge changes in the next few months are highly unlikely.

Bush administration officials maintain they are focused on turning over a functioning negotiating process to the next president. Obama has supported continuing that engagement in ongoing peace talks, but again, it will fall to his secretary to help develop any lasting agreement.

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