Is the desktop going the way of the dinosaur?

Suzanne Choney • E-mail

Are desktop PCs going the way of the dinosaur?

"They have been, to a degree," says David Daoud, research manager for IDC's U.S. Quarterly PC Tracker and Personal Systems.

A recent IDC report found that among all buying categories —consumers, as well as small and large businesses, government and education — notebook shipments exceeded 55 percent in the third quarter, making it the first time "in the history of the industry" that desktop sales didn't dominate as the PC of choice.

Home users have been "ahead of the curve compared to the entire market for a long, long time now," he said. So far, this year, notebooks represent 64 percent of the consumer PCs shipped to the United States.

The popularity of notebooks is due, in part, to the continuing growth of wireless Internet connections both inside the home and out, the mobility of laptops themselves and their continuing price drops.

Last year, the average price for a consumer notebook was $1,000; this year it's $888, Daoud said.

Desktop prices have dropped, too, of course. "Right now you can get a desktop for $300," he said, but "there's really not room to lower those prices. It has reached a certain plateau, so it's really not benefiting from price decreases as much as what we're seeing on the laptop side."

By 2012, laptops will account for more than 80 percent of the consumer market, he said.

Lots of laptop competition
The large number of notebook manufacturers, including HP, Dell, Apple, Acer, Asus, Sony, Toshiba, Panasonic, Lenovo, also means more price competition. That's in contrast to desktop PCs, Daoud said.

"It's becoming more of a two-horse race between Dell and HP," he said. "On the laptop side, you have much more choice, many more vendors."

Desktops are "certainly showing an amount of fatigue, if you will," he said. "And cannibalization from laptops plays a major role in that trend."

A bit of that cannibalization is from the small but growing number of "netbooks," also called ultraportables or mini-notebooks. The 2- and 3-pound laptops generally cost $300 to $400, and but don't come with full-sized keyboards or much computing oomph. Their appeal is largely fo Internet and e-mail on the go.

Netbooks are finding a lot of success in Western Europe, Daoud said, where more than 6 million will be sold this year. The draw for Europeans?

"Most of those products are being sold through telecom companies there, that give them to customers as part of a two-year data contract" for Internet and e-mail use, he said.

In contrast, in the United States, where there are not yet such deals, "we're looking at less than 1 million units."

More stylish desktops
Heavyweights HP and Dell have also broadened their offerings this year to include such laptop lightweights.

But desktops remain a vital segment of their lineups, and their appearance is morphing to reflect changing times.

Both companies have stylish all-in-one desktop PCs that make the more traditional separate units of a CPU and monitor look a bit fuddy-duddy. Apple's all-in-one iMac design, incorporating the CPU into the monitor, helped start that trend.

HP has gone a step further with its TouchSmart IQ line of desktops, which are both sleek-looking and offer a touchscreen option for everything from Web surfing to drag-and-drop music playlists. The touch option coincides with a growing number of other consumer touchscreen devices, especially cell phones.

The company introduced its first TouchSmart PC early last year, and came out with a revamped lineup last summer, including a 25.5-inch widescreen model with a TV tuner and remote control, which starts at $2,100. The least expensive TouchSmart IQ starts at $1,299.

MORE FROM DIGITAL HOME

Digital Home Section Front

Kindle DX: A little ungainly Digital TV questions and answers Lines between netbooks, laptops keep blurring Dell launches 'Della,' a women's PC site IT survey: Not quite ready for Windows 7 AOL: You've got irrelevancy? Not your mother's Garmin or Nokia Can other 'app' stores work for mobile users? Non-removable batteries aren't a charge for all Kindle for iPhone not the only e-book reader Digital Home Section Front   Add Digital Home headlines to your news reader: