How Obama won the White House

National pessimism about the economy
In the national exit poll sample it appeared that the electorate is worried about its sinking economic fortunes.

According to early NBC News exit poll interviews, more than nine out of 10 voters interviewed said economic conditions in America are “not so good” or “poor.” 

Nearly the same percentage said they were very worried or somewhat worried about the future course of the economy.

And six in 10 voters picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation.

Such pessimism is usually a grim omen for the party in control of the White House. In the elections of 1992, 1980, 1960 and 1932, economic distress, to some degree, resulted in the party in control of the presidency losing the White House.

This pessimism is hardly surprising, given the decline in personal income reported last week by the Commerce Department.

Disposable personal income decreased by $102.4 billion, or nearly 4 percent in the third quarter of 2008, in contrast to an increase of $409.3 billion, or nearly 17 percent in the second quarter.

Contrast with 2004
When voters went to the polls in 2004, they were nearly evenly split about the condition of the economy, with 47 percent saying it was in excellent or good shape and 52 percent saying it was in fair or poor shape.

The economic pessimists in 2004 tended to vote for Kerry, with nearly 80 percent of them supporting him.

Those who were feeling upbeat about the economy in 2004 voted Republican, with nearly 90 percent of them backing Bush.

In 2004, voters were closely divided over the direction of the country. Almost half said the country was going in the right direction; a bit fewer than half said America was on the wrong track.

But this year, 76 percent of voters interviewed in the NBC exit poll said the country is “seriously off on the wrong track.”

Seven out of 10 voters interviewed said they were very or somewhat worried about another terrorist attack on the United States, a level unchanged from four years ago.

But only 9 percent of the voters interviewed in the exit poll said terrorism was the most important issue facing the country.

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