'Meet the Press' transcript for Nov. 2, 2008

MR. TOM BROKAW:  Our issues this Sunday:  48 hours to go, and the candidates spend the final days crisscrossing the nation hoping to sway voters in the last moments of this historic 2008 battle for the White House.  McCain vs. Obama, we'll hear closing arguments from both sides.

(Videotape)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL):  We'll win this general election; and together, you and I, we're going to change this country and we're going to change the world.

(End videotape)

(Videotape)

SEN. JOHN McCAIN (R-AZ):  Now let's go win this election and get our country moving again.

(End videotape)

MR. BROKAW:  For the McCain campaign, former 2008 Republican presidential candidate, former senator from Tennessee, Fred Thompson.  And for the Obama campaign, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry.

Then, our political roundtable with insights and analysis on the landscape, the battleground map, and the final campaign strategies:  David Broder, veteran political columnist for The Washington Post; David Gregory, chief White House correspondent for NBC News and host of MSNBC's "Race for the White House"; Michele Norris, host of NPR's "All Things Considered"; and Chuck Todd, political director for NBC News.

But first, let's get the very latest polls and battleground landscape from NBC's political director, Chuck Todd, who's our kind of walking, talking GPS system.

Chuck, what's the latest this morning, just 48 hours to go?

MR. CHUCK TODD:  Good morning, Tom.  Well, there's four states that both campaigns look at their tracking polls first.  It starts with Virginia, where we have Obama with a narrow lead, 47 to McCain's 44.  In Mason-Dixon polling, this is the first time Obama's been ahead in Virginia.  In Florida, we have Obama, 47; McCain, 45.  This has been a consistent lead in the Mason-Dixon poll for Obama.  Small, but still a lead.  In Colorado, the largest lead that Obama has of any of the states we have today:  Obama, 49; McCain, 44.  And in, and in Ohio, a bright spot for McCain:  McCain at 47, Obama at 45.  This is one of those states, of course, a Republican has never won without Ohio.

And then our other troika of states here.  Nevada:  Obama at 47; McCain, 43. This race has tightened in that state.  Both candidates in Nevada this final weekend.  In Missouri, McCain, basically a dead heat, 47; Obama, 46.  And finally, in North Carolina, where we've seen lots of talk about early voting, we have McCain at 49, Obama at 46.  All of these polls, of course, Tom, could change depending on what is the percentage of turnout among young voters, among African-Americans, among older voters, etc.

MR. BROKAW:  All right, Chuck, stand back for a moment and let's take a look at the big map and see what's going on there for us as well.

MR. TODD:  Well, we'll show you what we have.  Last week--here is last week's map.  And I want you to take a look--keep an eye on these states up here in the Rocky--northern Rocky Mountain region, as well as here, the agricultural Midwest, and down here in the South, where you can see our changes this morning, and you will see what's happened.  These states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan solidifying for Obama.  John McCain's not even there.  Two new toss-ups:  Montana and North Dakota.  And if we really wanted to get precise, we'd also put the Omaha congressional district in Nebraska. Nebraska, a state that splits its electoral votes by congressional district. And in that Omaha district, it is a dead heat, Tom.

MR. BROKAW:  And, Chuck, what about voter turnout, and especially the organization of the two campaigns, getting their people to the polls?

MR. TODD:  Well, it--we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of the long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans.  And of course, we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

MR. BROKAW:  And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

MR. TODD:  Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got.  Here's our, our columns here.  I'm going to put all of the current toss-up states in McCain's column, and watch his number as it grows right up here.  If you move all of these states over:  Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Nevada.  You see the problem he's got.  He's still at 252, 18 short.  So what does that mean?  If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, well, we see Obama goes down to 265, McCain gets his 273.  Then you asked why New Hampshire?  That's the insurance policy.  Nevada, a state that is--that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270.  So it is the only number--path he's got left.  They know this, and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play.  And we don't know if it really is.  We know he's spending a lot of time there.  And they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

MR. BROKAW:  All right.  Thanks, Chuck.  We'll see you later on MEET THE PRESS in our roundtable.

We're joined now by former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, who has been a surrogate and an advocate for his friend John McCain.

I hope you understand the spirit in which I say this, but when I was a kid hanging around Bud's pool hall, you're the kind of guy I thought I probably would encounter.  So you, you know the meaning of the phrase "run the table."

FMR. SEN. FRED THOMPSON (R-TN):  I've heard of it, yes.

MR. BROKAW:  Your senator have to run the table?

SEN. THOMPSON:  Well, he has to get several of these, these battleground states, there's no question about it.  Some people liken it to an inside straight.  I think that's probably making it too tough, tougher than it is. It looks to me like it pretty much boils down to the undecided vote, which a lot of experts think will break heavily for John McCain.  If they're decided, they're probably already for Obama.  And so he's got a shot.  He's, he's closing.  I think the direction things are going in is, is equally important as where the numbers are today.  And the direction is, is--they've been pretty much--seems to be going in John's direction.

I've been in Ohio and Pennsylvania recently and I've seen the turnout.  I think Sarah Palin had about 25,000 in rural Missouri the other day.  The enthusiasm is tremendous.  People are really focusing now on what's at stake. And John's a closer, he always has been.  He often is given up for dead, you know, literally and politically.  People have been wrong about him before. He's in his element now, and he's, he's feeling good about it.  So I would not count him out by any stretch of the imagination.  I think the, the election is yet to be decided.

MR. BROKAW:  The Economist has described a group of voters that has crossed over to vote for John McCain.  They call them "Obamacans." These are disaffected Republicans and Libertarians.  A couple of very prominent conservative columnists have commented on all this.  We want to share with our viewers this morning what Charles Krauthammer in The Washington Post had to say on Friday.

"The National security choice in this election is no contest.  The domestic policy choice is more equivocal because it is ideological.  McCain is the quintessential center-right candidates.  Yet the quintessential center-right country is poised to reject him.  The hunger for anti-Republican catharsis and the blinding promise of Obamian hope are simply too strong.  The reckoning," he says, "will come in the morning."

And then Michael Gerson, who was a speechwriter for President Bush said, "Yet there is little doubt, given a likely (though not certain) McCain defeat, that the conservative movement would enter a period of intense soul-searching.  The issues that have provided conservatives with victories in the past - particularly welfare and crime - have been rendered irrelevant by success. The issues of the moment - income stagnation, climate disruption, massive demographic shifts and health-care access - seem a strange, unexplored land for many in the movement.  And McCain, though a past reformer, did little to reaffirm that reputation during his campaign."

The senator is at the head of a ticket in a--of a party that's been in power eight years now.  The president, who's the head of that party, has historically low approval ratings.  The country is saying, 85 percent, we're off on the wrong track.  Isn't he swimming against a tsunami?

SEN. THOMPSON:  Yeah.  Yeah.  He is--he's going into the strongest headwinds that I've ever seen for a candidate in a presidential race.  Some might say that it's, it's amazing that he has a chance to win this race.  You mentioned the factors, plus the fact that in this country, you know, we swing the pendulum.  We, we have one side in for a while and then another side in for a while.  The president gets credit or blame for anything that's happening.  We know the numbers, we know the generic ballot and all those kinds of things, and then, you know, shortly before the election, the bottom seems to drop out of the economy.  I mean, just to, you know--in case we hadn't gotten the point yet, it seems, that fate's playing with us.  So, yeah, it's, it's remarkable. We nominated the, the only fellow that'll have a chance, I think, under these circumstances.  And it's because of, of several things.  But, but because of the character of, of the man.  Here is a guy who has spent his entire life demonstrating courage, honor, dedication, duty, putting his country first, sacrifice.  Someone who has been willing to stand up to power, whether it be Democratic or Republican power, whose entire life has equipped him to be the leader of the free world.  Charles is right about the national security part. It's really no question.  Here's a man who has been involved one way or another in the major issues facing this country for the last 25 years.

On the other hand, you have a fellow who is the most inexperienced and least qualified from a national security standpoint of any Democratic candidate I've seen in my lifetime.

MR. BROKAW:  We're going to share with our audience, as well, something that you had to say as an advert for Senator McCain talking about principles and how they've always served us well.  Let's share that if we can now.

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