Decoding Election Day, state-by-state

Oklahoma: Other than Hawaii, there may not be a quieter state this year, politically, than Oklahoma. There was a time when Democrats thought they could sneak up on Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe but that no longer looks feasible.

Oregon: Remember when Oregon was a swing state in '00? No longer. Obama is simply dominating the state and because of his strength, he may drag a Democratic senate candidate across the finish line. Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has done everything he could to stop the Democratic momentum but looks like he may come up just short. If there is a potential bright spot for the GOP, it could be that they come close to picking off the open 5th District. They probably won't, but it's a district they should be competitive in if they ever want to be a majority party again.

Pennsylvania: Ah, the Keystone state. Is it in play or not? The McCain folks have no choice but to believe that it is. They are hoping that party I.D. snaps back and that some sort of race component kicks in to salvage McCain. I don't know. If George W. Bush couldn't carry the state, why should we believe McCain can? Ironically, Republicans have a shot at winning two House seats thanks to incumbent Democratic gaffes; Both Jack Murtha and Paul Kanjorski are on the brink. Could Pennsylvania be the only state in the union where Republicans net more House seats than Democrats?

Rhode Island: I wrote the Oklahoma blurb too soon... Rhode Island is another quiet political state. Not a lot going on that will be worth discussing on Tuesday though I am curious about Obama's margin: Will it be down in this heavily white ethnic part of New England?

South Carolina: What is going on in South Carolina? We have polling indicating that the presidential race might be fairly competitive. The surge in African-Americans could make South Carolina one of the surprises of Election Night. My guess is that McCain holds on but don't be surprised if we can't call the state at poll close. In fact, the surge in African-Americans appears to be so great that Republicans are now fretting the Republican Henry Brown might lose his House seat. Democrat Linda Ketner, if she upsets Brown, would be the state's first openly gay member of Congress.

South Dakota: The only thing worth staying up for on E-night in South Dakota is to see how close Obama comes to carrying the state. Recent polling has suggested that McCain has not put this state away. There's something happening in the plains and the Rocky Mountain west because McCain is underperforming in the entire region. The other big story in the state is the fact that Democrat Tim Johnson is winning his re-election so easily after his stroke. He's not having the easiest time getting around or communicating but Republicans failed to find a very credible challenger. The local media as well as state Republicans have not pushed this story and it's been to Johnson's benefit. Tip: There's an abortion referendum on the ballot that, if passed, could test Roe v. Wade in the High Court.

Tennessee: It's amazing that Obama is doing so well right now but getting killed in Tennessee. This is a state that has a pretty good presidential track record and Democrats normally don't win the White House without the Volunteer state, but the Republican stranglehold on the state is stronger than ever. Lamar Alexander is also coasting to re-election.

Texas: There are some nervous Republicans running around the state right now. It's the first time no Bush is on the ballot or governing the state since the '70s and it's showing. McCain's margin may not be as big as Bush's (hurting McCain in the meaningless but significant national popular vote). Also, Republican John Cornyn isn't going to win by a landslide and even a Republican House member or two could lose. Republicans are contesting one Dem-held House seat as they hope to knock off the Tom DeLay-killer, Nick Lampson.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

Utah: The story is NOT Utah, Frank. (Note: only "Fletch" fans will get this reference. Hopefully my editors will leave it in). [Editors' note: We will.]

Vermont: It wasn't too long ago that Vermont was a lock for the Republicans. I swear, it was in my lifetime. Go figure. The state has an odd law that if no gubernatorial candidate gets over 50%, the House elects the governor. Republican Jim Douglas always has to worry about that.

Virginia: This state and the Republican Party are just not in sync. I'm convinced if the state GOP were in better shape, McCain would be in better shape. But because the state party is such a mess, McCain's in trouble. Mark Warner is coasting to an easy senate victory and the GOP could lose one to three House seats. Just a devastating time to be a Republican in Virginia.

Washington: Looking for a bright spot on E-night for the GOP? It could be in this state's governor's race, where Republican Dino Rossi is hoping to revenge his close '04 loss to Christine Gregoire. Right now, Gregoire is trying to ride Obama's coattails to victory; it could very well be enough. Tip: Democrats are worried they won't be able to win a House seat that on paper should be theirs in a year like this, the 8th District.

Interactive Election A to Z Do you have questions about the election process? We'll answer them. NBC News

Washington, D.C.: Can McCain crack 15 percent? Could Obama top 90 percent? That's about the only drama here.

West Virginia: As of late, it appears McCain has righted his ship in this economically depressed state but the fact that Obama closed the margin says a lot about the state of this presidential race. If McCain's voters don't turn out in the numbers he needs, Republicans are also worried they could lose the 2nd District House seat. Right now, it seems like they should survive here but anything can happen.

Wisconsin: Remember when Wisconsin was a battleground state? Wow, have things changed in this state in just four years. Republicans ought to focus on rebuilding the Wisconsin state party before many other states because once they crack the Wisconsin code, they'll be able to succeed in other states.

Wyoming: Looking for a mini-shocker? Democrats could win Dick Cheney's old House seat. Yes, it's that bleak these days for the GOP at the House level.

McCain concedes, urges unity with Obama McCain joins Fey to joke on 'SNL' John McCain still has a shot Subscribe to McCain headlines -

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