Decoding Election Day, state-by-state

Minnesota: Forget the presidential race, there's no better campaign for political junkies like myself than the nutty three-way Senate race between Norm Coleman, Al Franken and ex-Sen. Dean Barkley (remember, Jesse Ventura appointed Barkley to the Senate for the remaining days of the late Paul Wellstone's term). It's a crazy race; I think there's even a five percent chance the third party candidate wins. That said, I guess Franken is the very slight favorite. It's been a roller-coaster. A Franken win would be the ultimate culmination of what's been the convergence of everyday politics and satire. I can't wait to see how Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert and the “SNL” folks deal with a Sen. Franken. Tip: Democrats could pick up two more House seats, including suddenly vulnerable Michelle Bachmann’s seat and another open seat.

Mississippi: Like Louisiana and Georgia, I'm going to be watching the surge in African-American turnout very closely in this state. How big will it be without efforts from the Obama campaign to turn out voters? This could tell us more about the historic nature of this election than anything in Florida, North Carolina or Virginia. Also, if Democrats win the Roger Wicker Senate seat — both of the state's Senate seats are on the ballot this year — it'll be solely because of an historic surge in African-American turnout. The surge should be big enough to allow Democrats to hold the House seat they won earlier this year in a special election.

Missouri: Two big races in the state: the presidential, of course, and the race to replace the unpopular and retiring GOP Gov. Matt Blunt. The Democrats look to be in a good shape to pick up the governor’s seat. The biggest problem for the GOP in this race is their nominee has the first name of "Congressman" in a year when that's not the most popular title with voters. Moreover, Blunt's unpopularity doesn't help Republican Kenny Hulshof either. As for the presidential implications, Missouri is a state that's a trailing indicator of the national polls. If Democrats lead by two to four points nationally, they are a point or two to even in Missouri. If Obama carries Missouri, I suspect this means he'll carry just about every toss-up state left on the NBC battleground map. As for House races, it doesn't look like the potential Democratic House wave is going to sweep away any House seats, but the open seat and Republican Sam Graves' district are relatively competitive.

Montana: The Republican Party here has been devastated, leaving Obama with a reasonable chance of carrying the state. Republicans have very little reason to go to the polls in Montana outside of the presidential race. There's not a good ground game in the state for the GOP, as it is hard to motivate voters for a gadfly Senate nominee and a gubernatorial candidate who has no shot at knocking off the popular incumbent, Democrat Brian Schweitzer.

Nebraska: For the first time since they changed their law to allow electoral votes to be split, it appears there's a decent chance that Nebraska could split its five electoral votes, 4-1. Obama's chances to carry the state's 2nd District look very good, in fact so good we may move the district to "toss-up" status. Not only is Obama doing well in the district, Democrats have a decent shot at knocking off the incumbent Republican in the district, Lee Terry. One of the interesting potential missed opportunities for Democrats is the Senate race. Republican Mike Johanns could have been given a tough race, but Democrats chose not to. In fact — get ready for this — not a single negative ad has been run in the campaign. That may sound nice to good-government types, but it's why Democrat Scott Kleeb has not benefited from the national Blue tide. He hasn't made a Bush case against Johanns.

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Nevada: As I've been hinting for quite a bit, the situation facing state Republican parties across the country has as much to do with McCain's problems in some battlegrounds as it has to do with Bush. The state GOP in Nevada is a mess because of the nutty problems besetting the state's Republican governor, Jim Gibbons. The guy has had a high-profile divorce from, shall we say, his very colorful ex-wife. He's also had a bout or two with ethics issues. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has organized the heck out of this state and while I expect it to be very close on Election Day, McCain's got issues in Nevada. He may yet eke it out, but we shall see. As for down the ballot, I'm keeping an eye on the 3rd District where Republican Jon Porter — who is preparing to challenge Harry Reid in 2010 — appears to be the slight underdog against Democrat Dina Titus. Porter has a way of making comebacks so don't count him out.

New Hampshire: In 2006, I said the Democratic wave came ashore in New Hampshire, as that state saw more Republicans get swept out the state Legislature and Congress than any other. This year, things don't look much better. Republicans have a reasonable shot at winning back the 1st District House race, but the presidential and the Senate races look to be trending the wrong way. New Hampshire has been the last Republican bastion of New England, but year after year, the state seems less "Live Free or Die" and more of a Boston suburb. If Republicans fail to win one of the House seats and hold the Senate seat, it could be a long while before they get their groove back in the state.

New Jersey: The Garden State is starting to act like its old self again.  Even in a good Republican year, the state leans Democratic and that seems to be the case again. In another year, I could make the case that Republicans would have a shot at knocking off Sen. Frank Lautenberg, but not this year. Down the ballot, the Democrats are trying to pick off two House seats. If they win them both (my guess is they only win one), it'll leave the Republicans with just three of the state's 10 House districts, a real low point for a once proud state Republican Party.

New Mexico: The state is getting an entirely new House delegation as all three of the state's representatives decided to run for retiring Pete Domenici's open Senate seat. Two members are facing off in the senate race where Democrat Tom Udall appears to be headed to a big victory over Republican Steve Pearce. Pearce beat the more statewide friendly Republican, Heather Wilson, in the primary. While I doubt Wilson could have beaten Udall in this environment, she would have made it a better race. Keep an eye on Wilson, I'm betting she runs for governor in 2010. Democrats appear poised to sweep all three House seats which would be a net pickup of two seats and yet another setback for another state Republican Party.

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New York: Speaking of potentially disastrous Republican showings, welcome to the Empire State. Democrats could win as many as four House seats and take control of the state senate. The story of the changing New York political landscape has been chronicled fairly well by the New York Times. The bottom line: The GOP in New York, like everywhere in the Northeast, is a mess. Losing the state senate is going to be a tough blow for them. Even Rudy Giuliani might not be the white knight the party thinks he can be in 2010. We'll see, though. The GOP bench is thin and the one thing Rudy could do is bring a financial shot in the arm to the Republicans.

North Carolina: Is there a more relevant battleground state than the Tarheel state? Not only is the presidential close, but the senate and governor's races are also nailbiters. The Dem ballot is really fascinating as none of the top three slots are being filled by white males. And, believe it or not, the Republicans feel best about their chances in the governor's race (a campaign they usually lose) than the senate or presidential. A Democratic victory in the senate race would really be historic as it would be the first time since the days of Sam Ervin that the party will have won a senate seat in a presidential year. Democrats also have a shot at a House pickup in the 8th District. But keep an eye on Republican Pat McCrory. If the Charlotte mayor wins in this environment, he'll instantly become a player in national Republican politics.

North Dakota: The state has seen Democratic success in House and Senate races for years but that hasn't trickled up for the presidential since '64. Could all that change this year? I think so. The key ingredient for Obama? Same-day voter registration; it's his ace in the hole.

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Ohio: One of the better state Republican parties is right here in the Buckeye State; it's why so many of us aren't ready to count McCain out yet in Ohio. The Republican machine is a good one. The Democrats had a terrible state organization here before 2004 but have since put together a very impressive operation. If Ohio does go south on McCain, he could take a couple of House seats down with him, giving the Democrats control of that House delegation. The two Cincinnati-area House races, as well as the open seats are what the Republicans are worried about.

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