Decoding Election Day, state-by-state

Illinois: Obviously, the presidential race isn't in doubt here. The big question is how long Obama's coattails in his state will be. Could he swing four House races? Probably not, but if Democrats net less than two seats out, they'll be disappointed. The big post-election story if Obama wins the presidency will be in the hands of the ethically embattled Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich. He's not very popular and has a chance to use his power to appoint an Obama replacement as a step in the direction of political rehabilitation. The fear among some Democrats is that “the Rod” will not listen to political reason as far as who could hold onto the seat for the Democrats in 2010. All sorts of names get bandied about, including Jesse Jackson Jr. (unlikely), Lisa Madigan (who wants to be governor more than a senator), Tammy Duckworth (the disabled Iraq war vet who lost a bid for Congress in '06) and Bill Daley. Because the Rod goes his own way, there's no telling what he will do. He could find a caretaker, that is, appoint someone who refuses to run for a full term.

Indiana: The most surprising battleground state development of the cycle is Indiana. Forget Colorado, North Carolina or Virginia — we knew those were coming. Indiana does not fit the profile of a state that seemed ready to move toward the Democrats, but move it has. The Democratic wave, though, isn't so big that Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels appears threatened. In fact, a Daniels win in this climate could catapult the one-time rising star of the Bush administration to national prominence again. Daniels is a conservative pragmatist that the party may desperately need to take a leadership role. If Obama wins the state, it'll be by a nose hair and he might sweep out conservative Rep. Mark Souder at the same time.

Iowa: What has happened to the Iowa Republican Party? Just two years ago, the GOP held four of the five House seats. Now, if the wave hits hard enough, the party could be down to just one seat (the always conservative 5th District). The state GOP's health can be summed up by the lack of a challenge they've given to the usually vulnerable Tom Harkin. In fact, Iowa is similar to a lot of battleground states where McCain is struggling; the state’s Republican infrastructure is just a mess. See also: Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia, to name a few.

Kansas: Obama’s ties to this state through his mother’s roots haven’t translated to a pop in his numbers. The reliable Republican nature of the state is remaining just that, reliable. But it's not like the GOP is doing big things in Kansas, either. Nancy Boyda, a Democrat from the 2nd District, who some thought would be an accidental victor in '06, looks poised to win re-election, which is the most surprising development in state politics. Tip: Look for lots of action in this state in 2010 as Sam Brownback eyes a gubernatorial run, which in turn could have Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius eyeing a Senate seat, unless she gets a gig in Obama's cabinet.

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Kentucky: Six months ago, it didn't appear I'd have much to say about the Bluegrass State but my, have things changed. Not only are Democrats poised to pick up a House seat (in the state's rural 2nd District) but there's a 30 percent chance they knock off the state's most powerful Republican, Sen. Mitch McConnell. The state is more of an evenly divided state than its reputation betrays. Tip: If Obama's within 10 points on Election Day, then it's probably going to be a bad night for McCain.

Louisiana: Is something happening in the Bayou? A recent poll showing Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu winning by a big margin also had Obama within three points of McCain. Could this poll be right? It really depends on how many Katrina evacuees return to the state to vote. It's the big unknown and is probably why the Obama campaign didn't target the state. It's very difficult to find the electorate and guarantee you can get them to come back to New Orleans in time to vote. Frankly, I don't know what's going to happen. Some days, I think we're underplaying the potential of Katrina evacuees to return and make the presidential race competitive and other days I think the electorate has changed so much that Landrieu is going to lose. We'll find out Tuesday. Tip: Democrats could pick up a House seat in the state, perhaps the 4th District, but it'll be a neutral gain since they may lose the district they won in a special election earlier this year.

Maine: Besides the development of Indiana as a presidential battleground, this cycle’s other big surprise for me is the lack of a race that Republican Sen. Susan Collins has found (or not found) herself in. If Democrats are killing it so much in New England then how did this race not pop for them? Answer: Collins is very good on the bread-and-butter parts of her job. She returns to the state all the time, not just in election years and has voted very much like a Maine moderate needs to vote in order to secure re-election. If Democrats come up short of their 60-seat, filibuster-proof Senate majority, Collins and her colleague Olympia Snowe could become the two most popular Republicans in the Democratic caucus.

Maryland: About the only major development here is that the state GOP could lose yet another Republican House seat. Believe it or not, Maryland wasn't always this much of a Democratic state, but it sure is looking like one now. Seven of the eight seats could now be Democrat. And I can't find a Republican for miles that appears to have the statewide juice to break the Democrats’ hold on any of these statewide seats. This is a state where the GOP may need to start from scratch.

Massachusetts: Did you know that there is no bigger state in the union that has one party in control of everything – the governor's mansion, two U.S. Senate seats and an entire House delegation? That said, the Democrats’ dominance here has gotten to a point where I'm guessing the state's a cycle or two away from seeing some Republican finally break through again. I guess it wasn't that long ago when Mitt Romney was the state's governor. It seems like such ancient history, doesn't it?

Michigan: Speaking of states becoming less competitive, welcome to Michigan. Nothing disappoints national Republican strategists more than their inability to get Michigan back into the swing column. From the presidential race on down, the party hasn't really had a success in this state in 10 years (Gov. John Engler's last re-election victory). Because McCain abandoned the state, there is some fear in GOP circles that the Democrats could pick up one or two House seats. Tip: If Republicans do lose the White House, keep an eye on state party chair Saul Anuzis, who could decide to run for RNC chair. His main argument: move the center of the Republican Party out of the South. Saul's main competition: South Carolina's Katon Dawson.

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