How to be the star at your election party

Don't forget Pennsylvania
Based on past presidential elections, most of the states whose polls close at 8 p.m. should be easy wins for Obama. An easy comment for the couch potato pundit on election night.

But Pennsylvania bears close watching.

A McCain win in Pennsylvania would defy expectations. It would also signal polling there at the start of this week was either wrong or outdated.

And if polling was wrong there, where else was it wrong?

McCain has fought hard to win the state. Both he and Obama are campaigning there heavily in the final week.

In northeast Pennsylvania, Democrat Paul Kanjorski has faced allegations of wasteful earmark spending, which could work to the benefit of his Republican foe Lou Barletta. This is one of the GOP’s best opportunities to gain a House seat.

In Erie, in the 3rd congressional district Republican incumbent Phil English has a struggle against Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper. English is a conservative and a defender of the steel industry who was first elected in the Newt Gingrich wave of 1994. But Pennsylvania political analyst Jon Delano calls Dahlkemper “a pro-gun, pro-life, pro-business conservative Democrat.”

Beer or coffee?
By 9ish, you may have to face a call of your own: a beer run, or time to brew up the coffee. If at this point you think it's going to be a long night, you may want to opt for the latter.

Wisconsin closes its polls at 9 p.m. A McCain victory there would be startling — at least given the current polling. He’s been behind in Wisconsin since early summer.

Also closing at 9 is Colorado. If the presidential race is still up in the air, the outcome could hinge on Colorado.

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The state also has a marquee Senate race which the Democrats fully expect to win (Democrat Mark Udall vs. Republican Bob Schaffer).

It also has one of the nation’s epic House battles with embattled social conservative Rep. Marilyn Musgrave facing Democrat Betsy Markey.

Can Coleman survive in Minnesota?
Another 9 o'clock poll closing is in Minnesota.

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman won in 2002 with only 49 percent of the vote. He could win this year with an even smaller percentage as he faces Democrat and former 'SNL' star Al Franken and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.

One leading indicator for Coleman: Anoka County in the suburbs north of St. Paul.

In 2002, Coleman carried Anoka with 56 percent and in 2004 Bush won 53 percent there. But in the 2006 Senate race, the losing GOP candidate, Mark Kennedy, got only 41 percent in Anoka.

Coleman probably needs well more than 90,000 votes in Anoka County to win statewide.

If you check the running tally of independent spending by outside groups and by party committees (try The Center for Responsive Politics), you’ll see that there’s been a massive investment by both sides, $2.4 million and counting, in an open seat race in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, an excellent suburban indicator.

Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad is retiring. Democrat Ashwin Madia squares off against Republican Erik Paulsen.

Time to check in on Nebraska
In Nebraska, where polls also close at 9 p.m., you’ll see both a ballot referendum on state use of racial preferences as well as a strong Obama effort in Omaha — so strong that it may get Obama an electoral vote.

(And here's some more trivia to wow the crowd: Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split their electoral votes, allotting them to the winner of each congressional district.)

The Obama effect in Omaha might cost Republican Rep. Lee Terry his seat in what has been a very Republican-performing district for years.

Tired yet?
If you’re an East Coaster, but still awake when polls close on the West Coast, take a look at another imperiled Republican, Rep. John Shadegg in Arizona 3, a place that Bush carried with nearly 60 percent of the vote in 2004.

Also in the Pacific Time Zone: the proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot in California to define marriage as a union between one man and one woman.

In 2000 California voters passed a nearly identical measure with 61 percent.

But that was a law, not a constitutional amendment, and it was overturned by the state supreme court.

The California vote will tell you whether sentiment on gay marriages has shifted since 2000.

And if you plan to greet dawn’s early light on the East Coast, or are just getting started on the West Coast, be sure to find out whether or not Alaska’s beleaguered 40-year Senate veteran, Ted Stevens, keeps his job or loses to Democrat Mark Begich.

On Monday, a jury found Stevens, 84, guilty on seven counts of trying to hide more than $250,000 in free home renovations and other gifts from a wealthy oil contractor.

Polls close in Alaska, Colorado and Montana at 1 a.m., followed by the final state to wrap up the night, Nevada, at 2 a.m.

Will you still be partying?

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