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5 myths about the election and the stock market


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Myth #3: Investors and traders are watching the election closely
"Truly I don't think the market is paying much attention," says John Merrill, chief investment officer of Tanglewood Wealth Management, when asked about the election. "Today the market and the economy are shaping events much more than the presidential election."

It's not that the presidential election doesn't matter to investors. It's just that other events — particularly the financial crisis and the economic slowdown — have taken center stage. "We have so many other things on the table right now that we haven't even thought about the election," says Greg Church, president of Church Capital Management.

Wall Street often shows a healthy skepticism to candidates' rhetoric and party platforms. American history is full of examples of politicians who abandon campaign promises once in office. McCain, if victorious, would have trouble getting his proposals through a Democratic Congress, observers say. And both candidates would need to adjust their policies to the realities of the financial crisis and recession. What matters is "less who is elected than what policies they pursue," says Andy Bischel, president of SKBA Capital Management and co-manager of the AHA Socially Responsible Equity Fund.

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Myth #4: The market is alarmed by prospects the capital-gains tax rate could be raised
Earlier this year, some were worried about a stock market sell-off if Obama was elected, due to his proposal to raise taxes on capital gains for wealthy investors. The theory was that investors would rush to sell stocks before the higher tax rate took effect.

Obama: Parties must 'transcend petty politics'
President Barack Obama said Tuesday that it's time for Democrats and Republicans to work hard because the American people "expect a seriousness of purpose that transcends petty politics."

Though higher taxes can be a burden on the economy, this theory of a short-term impact from Obama's tax plans was always open to question. "You try not to let tax implications dictate [investment] decisions," says financial planner Micah Porter of Minerva Planning in Atlanta.

As stock prices plunged the last two months, those worries have mostly evaporated. The S&P 500 closed at 908.11 on Oct. 23. In the last 10 years, the market has traded above this mark for all but a brief period, from July 2002 to April 2003. If you bought stocks at any other time, there's a good chance you have no capital gains to be taxed.

Myth #5: Wealthy investors can breathe easier because the next president wouldn't dare raise income taxes in a recession
Investors don't like paying taxes, so Obama's proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy are a frequent subject of conversation among market professionals. Economists and Washington observers, however, see few prospects to avoid higher taxes — even if McCain is elected.

One reason is the federal government's bailout plan, which adds $700 billion or so to an already bloated federal budget deficit. Even before the crisis hit, President George W. Bush and a Republican Congress had been unable to extend Bush's tax cuts beyond their scheduled expiration in 2010.

While higher taxes can hurt, a huge budget deficit is "really a problem in the long run," says Victor Li, an economics professor at the Villanova School of Business. "Whoever wins, the revenues have to be raised somewhere. Taxes have to be raised."

Many hope that Obama — or McCain, cutting a deal with a Democratic Congress — can delay this tax-raising until the economy revives. Obama "needs to be really realistic about raising taxes in an economic environment that could be really nasty," Church says.

"Right now, the focus of the Democrats is on stimulating the economy," says Daniel Clifton of Strategas Research Partners. However, a tax increase during a recession wouldn't be unusual, he adds. "Generally the government has to raise taxes in a recession because the federal deficit gets so big."


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