Obama, the high court, and race-based districts

During the oral argument in Bartlett v. Strickland, at least three justices indicated their uneasiness with judges being involved in deciding which of the less-than-50 percent minority districts must be shielded under the Voting Rights Act.

Chief Justice signals opposition
“How can you say that this brings us closer to a situation where race will not matter when it expands the number of situations in which redistricting authorities have to consider race?” Chief Justice John Roberts said to the attorney who was arguing that coalition districts need to be protected from being broken up during redistricting.

Kousser said five of the nine justices would probably rule that such districts can be broken up when legislators draw new district maps.

If the Bartlett decision goes the way Kousser predicts, he said in the states where Republican state legislators control redistricting, they would be able to “shatter any district now held by a minority-preferred candidate and they won't violate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.”

If Obama were president, he said, “there would be pressure on an Obama Administration and Congress to reverse it, and they will try hard.”

The justices may also decide another case next year involving a section of the Voting Rights Act which requires certain Southern states and some counties elsewhere in the country to get their voting procedures pre-approved by the Justice Department.

Getting pre-approval from the Justice Department
The case involves the Northwest Austin (Texas) Municipal Utility District Number One, NAMUDNO for short. NAMUDNO wants to bail out of the Voting Rights Act requirement that it submit changes in voting procedures to the Justice Department.

Interactive Election A to Z Do you have questions about the election process? We'll answer them. NBC News

It's "quite possible" that the Supreme Court will decide the NAMUDNO case during the 2008-2009 term, and that a majority will rule the pre-approval provisions of the Voting Rights Act coverage provisions unconstitutional, Kousser said.

If Obama is president and the justices use the NAMUDNO case to limit the reach of the Voting Rights Act, then, Kousser said “there will be pressure on the Obama Administration to rewrite the law, rather than to abandon it.”

“Assuming that he is elected, Obama will be the first U.S. president who has taught a course on voting rights, and he will realize not only the implications for minorities of adverse Supreme Court decisions in these two cases, but the effect on the Democratic party, as well,” Kousser said.

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