NYT: Support for Obama among Bush backers

By JIM RUTENBERG and MARJORIE CONNELLY

updated 9:11 p.m. ET Oct. 23, 2008

Senator Barack Obama is showing surprising strength among portions of the political coalition that returned George W. Bush to the White House four years ago, a cross section of support that, if it continues through Election Day, would exceed that of Bill Clinton in 1992, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News polls.

Underscoring the building strength of Mr. Obama’s candidacy in the final phase of the campaign, he was ahead of Mr. McCain among various groups that voted for Mr. Bush four years ago: those with incomes greater than $50,000 a year; married women; suburbanites; white Catholics, and is even competitive among white men — a group that has not voted for a Democrat over a Republican since 1972, when pollsters began surveying people after they voted.

Of potential concern for Mr. Obama’s strategists, a third of voters surveyed said they knew someone who does not support the Illinois Democrat because he is black. And, coming shortly after Mr. Obama’s running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, warned a group of Democratic donors that foreign leaders would test a President Obama in the first months of his term, voters are closely divided about Mr. Obama’s ability to handle a crisis.

Obama would defeat McCain
But, overall, the poll found that Mr. Obama would defeat Mr. McCain if the election were held now, with 52 percent of those identified as probable voters saying they would vote for Mr. Obama and 39 percent of them saying they would vote for Mr. McCain. Among registered voters, the spread between the two is almost identical, with 51 percent saying they would vote for Mr. Obama and 38 percent saying they would vote for Mr. McCain. A New York Times/CBS News poll taken a week ago showed a similar margin of victory for Mr. Obama.

The latest nationwide telephone poll was conducted Sunday through Wednesday with 1,152 adults nationwide, of whom 1,046 said they were registered to vote. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. To measure support for the candidates among specific voting blocs, The Times combined data from the latest poll with that of the one conducted last week because some of the sub-groups were too small to be statistically reliable when extracted from a single survey.

Despite Mr. McCain’s continued questioning of Mr. Obama’s readiness, the number of voters surveyed who say Mr. Obama has prepared himself well enough for the presidency was at its highest yet in the newest poll, at 56 percent. When The Times and CBS News first asked the question, more voters said they believed Mr. Obama was not ready, 49 percent, than believed he was not, 44 percent. Mr. McCain still holds an edge on that front, with 64 percent saying they believe he is prepared for the presidency.

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And there was fresh evidence that Mr. McCain’s attacks on Mr. Obama’s character and qualifications in tough commercials, mailings, speeches and robotic telephone calls were, if anything, harming Mr. McCain. The percentage of people who view Mr. McCain unfavorably was at its highest level since The Times and CBS began asking the question in 1999 — 46 percent said they held unfavorable views of him, with 39 percent saying they viewed him favorably. Mr. Obama was viewed favorably by 52 percent of the voters surveyed, and unfavorably by 31 percent of them.

Faring better on economic matters
Voters were almost evenly split over Mr. Obama’s ability to handle a crisis wisely: 49 percent said they were confident he could, and 47 percent said they would be uneasy. But respondents showed less ease with Mr. McCain: 51 percent said they would be uneasy with his approach and 46 percent expressed confidence.

Mr. Obama fared still better than Mr. McCain on economic matters: 65 percent said they were somewhat confident or very confident in Mr. Obama’s ability to handle the economy; 47 percent said the same thing about Mr. McCain.

In spite of Mr. McCain’s sustained attack on Mr. Obama’s proposal to raise income taxes on households and businesses that earn more than $250,000 a year — attacks often delivered with allusions to “Joe the Plumber” — Mr. Obama’s plan received significant support in the new poll. It was called a “good idea” by 62 percent and a “bad idea” by 33 percent.

Yet, at the same time, voters were evenly divided over Mr. McCain’s plan to make permanent the President Bush’s 2001 tax cuts.

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