When XX marks the ballot: Six gender myths

Myth No. 4: The gender gap is growing
First, a review of the definition of “gender gap,” that disparity between sexes that first showed up in the 1980s: The gender gap is the difference in the percentage of women and men who support a certain candidate, according to Walsh.

The gender gap was at its peak in 1996, when women favored Democrat Bill Clinton over Republican Bob Dole by a gap of a dozen points. Since then, the gender gap has averaged about 7 points, as it was in 2004, when 48 percent of women favored George W. Bush, compared to 55 percent of men.

Polls in the 2008 election seem to suggest that the gender gap is likely to remain the same or even shrink slightly, noted Beckwith, the Case Western political scientist. That difference could be significant in a close race.

Some polls have recorded gender gaps as low as zero or even 1 point, though most have been higher. In a Gallup poll released this week, 54 percent of women favored the Democratic nominee Obama, compared to 47 percent of men, a gap of 7 points.

One factor that could influence the gender gap depends on the women who actually turn out to vote. Those unmarried women who have been historically less likely to vote are far more likely to vote for Obama than for his Republican opponent McCain, 61 percent to 30 percent, according to Gallup. Among married women, the race has been nearly even with 46 percent for Obama and 48 percent for McCain.

If the single women stay home, they could cut into Obama’s margin. If more married women show up, they could boost numbers for McCain. Either way, women’s turnout will be crucial this year, Walsh said.

“I think it has the potential of women determining the outcome of the election,” she said.

Myth No 5: Women cause the gender gap
A related belief is that women have changed their voting behavior over the years, noted Dolan, the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor. In truth, the division between the sexes has been driven “by men becoming more conservative over the past 25 years,” she said.

“It is men who left the Democratic party in fairly large numbers in the 1980s,” she said. “In political science circles, it is men’s changing behavior over the past few decades that has changed the gender gap.”

If the gap narrows this year, it will also be because of the men, she added. Polls show Obama and McCain virtually tied for the male vote, while Obama’s lead among women appeared considerable, about 54 percent to 39 percent.

“Sen. Obama has the predicted advantage among women, but McCain doesn’t have the expected advantage among men,” Dolan said.

Overall, estimates of the tightness of race have varied widely, from polls that suggest Obama has a 10-point lead to a much closer margin.

Myth No. 6: Women care only about ‘women’s issues’
If party trumps gender when it comes to supporting female candidates, it also tops issues, experts said.

Women may generally support issues related to education, health care, child care and the environment, and they may oppose military intervention more often than men do, but in general, men and women care about the same issues.

During the 2004 election, the top issue was the war in Iraq, followed by the economy, Barakso said. This time, it’s the economy, followed by the war in Iraq.

Even a hot-button issue such as abortion isn’t a reliable predictor of women’s views.

“Women are as likely to be pro-choice or pro-life as men,” Dolan said.

This year, candidates who convey a successful solution for a tattered economy may do well with women, who see themselves as more vulnerable to fluctuations in income and employment, noted Kim Gandy, president of the National Organization for Women.

“If they want to sway women at this point, they really have to focus on the economy,” she said.

This year, of course, the economy is everyone’s issue.

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