'Meet the Press' transcript for Oct. 19, 2008

MR. BROKAW:  We're back.  We're joined now by NBC News political director Chuck Todd, who has some new polls out this morning.

Chuck, what's the big change from when we saw you two weeks ago?

MR. CHUCK TODD:  Well, what we did was we asked our state pollster to take a look at three states.  One that was perceived to be leaning in McCain's column, one leaning in Obama's column, and one pure toss-up.

Let's start with the pure toss-up, Ohio.  Well, our new poll for Mason-Dixon shows it was a toss-up before this morning, it's still a toss-up, 1 point race, margin of error stuff.  Ohio's been one of the few states that hasn't moved as much as we've seen some other states in Obama's direction.

Now let's take a look at Wisconsin, speaking of states that have moved.  This is now a 12-point lead for Obama in this poll, double digits.  We're, we're seeing--we're wondering why the McCain campaign, in some ways, is still actively campaigning there.  Republican Party pulled some money out, McCain is still keeping money alive there.

Then we took a look at West Virginia.  This is a state that popped recently. Well, it is still very close.  McCain has the lead 47-41.

So, just the big picture, Obama is closer in West Virginia than McCain is in Wisconsin.  That sort of tells the story of how this map has shifted, Tom.

MR. BROKAW:  And what, what's driving all that, Chuck?

MR. TODD:  Well, I think a lot of what's driving it is we're seeing the economy drive this thing.  When you look at our current map right now, here's where we were two weeks ago with the toss-up states.  You had some lean--places like Florida and North Carolina still in McCain's column.  And then now with the economy, and that's the best explanation for West Virginia right now, that you see a state like that move.  That tells you that's a state that's always economically hurting a little bit, at least it has been over the last eight years.  And now you're seeing that whatever cultural issues that Republicans successfully used to get that state into the Republican column over the last two elections, they have struggled now.  The economy moved Florida.  It's moved North Carolina.  The banking center of Charlotte really hurting.

But then, we've also seen some movement here in what I call the "region of Brokaw," Montana, and the two Dakotas, both now single digit races.  You're seeing--and frankly, we almost moved Arizona.  There's some evidence there that that is a state that is now only a high single-digit lead here, you know, demographically.  Again, the economy, older voters.  It's hurting everywhere.

MR. BROKAW:  And, Chuck, as I've been listening to these two campaigns and watching their ads, it seems to me if you're a senior citizen in America, they're probably calling you up and say, "We'll come over and do your laundry and drive you to the early bird special if that's what it takes to get you to vote for us."

MR. TODD:  Well, you know, we talk all about young voters, and we talk about African-Americans, we talk about this, we talk about that.  This thing is about seniors.  The difference between Obama fighting for 270 and Obama sailing past 270 is older, white voters.  The thing keeping McCain still with a boxer's chance here is older, white voters.  Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana--these are some of the old--have some of the oldest populations in the country.  So, when these voters, if they start moving in one direction, if they move in towards Obama, which we've seen a little bit of evidence that way, that's how this thing becomes from a close electoral college battle to a landslide.

And, by the way, one other point about our map, and we're seeing this shift. It's almost as if the McCain campaign is conceding the popular vote.  We're seeing a lot of tightening in places that while Obama probably won't carry them, he's not going to lose by large margins.  That means the McCain path is solely now an electoral college path, and if he wins the electoral college, it's hard to see how he actually wins the popular vote, Tom.

MR. BROKAW:  All right, thanks very much.  Chuck Todd.

We're joined now by David Brooks, Jon Meacham, Andrea Mitchell and Joe Scarborough.

Joe, let's begin with you.  The news of the morning that would create quite a buzz, my guess is today, is that Colin Powell, who's always been a Republican came out for Barack Obama.  Long term, make much of a difference?

MR. JOE SCARBOROUGH:  Maybe not long-term, but this is a week that you've got two and a half--this is a campaign where you have two and a half weeks left. And so if a Powell endorsement occupies the, the media for two--three days, that's critically important to John McCain.  He's got to turn the attention back to his campaign, to his issues.  This is a bad distraction for him at a very bad time.

MR. BROKAW:  You're very familiar with Florida.  Will Colin Powell have much of an impact on that state, which is much more in play now?

MR. SCARBOROUGH:  Well, sure, sure it will.  I mean, one of the reasons why John McCain shocked Mitt Romney--remember the last two or three days most people thought Mitt Romney was going to win Florida.  There is a huge military population in Florida and a very large retired military population in Florida. Colin Powell's endorsement helps him probably more in Florida than any other state.

MR. BROKAW:  David Brooks, what's your take on the Colin Powell endorsement?

MR. DAVID BROOKS:  Well, Republicans can either attack Colin Powell or they can regard him as a symptom of what's wrong with the party.  And Powell was not attacking John McCain; he had a lot of nice things to say about John McCain.  He was attacking the Republican Party.  And the key word there was "narrowing." The party is narrowing and leaving a lot of people out, people like Colin Powell, who served in the Bush administration, who spoke at the Republican convention.  And they have to ask themselves, "Why are we narrowing?" And that seems, to me, the, the implication of all of this, and that's the symptom of this whole election.  A lot of people who were Republicans feel they've been left out not by McCain, but by the party.  And if McCain has any blame, it's in the beginning of this campaign, he didn't say, "I'm different," he didn't break with the party, he didn't reform the party.  He got sucked up--sucked in, at least halfway, into the orthodoxy of the party that is narrowing.

MR. BROKAW:  Andrea Mitchell, is it enough for the Obama campaign just to get this endorsement this morning, or will they try to use him in ads and try to pull him out on the trail as well?

MS. ANDREA MITCHELL:  Well, they're not going to be able to pull him out on the trail.  He made that very clear to you, Tom.  But it makes a difference--to expand on what Joe said--it makes a difference with the military in North Carolina and Virginia, two other states that have really big military populations; conceivably, also, in South Carolina as well.

In talking about the narrowing of the party, he's talking, as he told you, about William Ayers, about the robocalls, about the accusations of socialism, about, let's face it, "Joe the Plumber." A lot of the seemingly marginal issues that the McCain campaign has fixed on in these closing weeks are now undercut by the Colin Powell endorsement.  This is a big deal with centrist Republicans, with Republican women in the suburbs.  He's appealing--by mentioning the Supreme Court, he's appealing to a lot of those women who may not agree with Barack Obama on a lot of social questions, but feel the tug on Roe v.  Wade and also would be influenced by Colin Powell and by a centrist Republican saying that this party is different.  I think this is a very powerful political statement.

MR. BROKAW:  Jon Meacham, before this endorsement by Colin Powell today, John McCain has been on the defensive.  He, in fact, at one point cited all the things that were working against him, said, "I've got them right where I want them." This is going to put him more on the defensive, isn't it?

MR. JON MEACHAM:  It is.  And despite all the statements of respect and affection and regard, which are clearly heartfelt, having Colin Powell endorse the Democratic nominee for president is like having the seal of approval from the most important military figure of the age.  Think--when you think about it, he gave his name--General Powell gave his name to the doctrine that we now can see, from our experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, is in fact the prevailing wisdom; the, the right thing to do is you exhaust all options, but when you go to, when you go into action you do so with a clear exit strategy and with overwhelming force.  He's--Colin Powell, to use a business term, is a stand-alone brand who's, I think, seal of approval will be hugely important to the--for a big center right part of the country.  This is not a liberal endorsement.  This is from a man--this is from a general who served both Bushes, and I think the first President Bush more happily.  And I think right now the country is more with the first President Bush on questions of power and the role of America in the world than it is with the second.

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