The Oprah effect: Can celebs sway voters?

In the 22 months of this election season, celebrity endorsements have generated a great deal of buzz, the most highly publicized being Oprah Winfrey’s support of Democratic candidate Barack Obama. But beyond the hype and media fanfare, do celebrity endorsements actually make a difference?

Poll after poll, conducted by Gallup, Pew and CBS News, suggest that they don’t matter to the overwhelming majority of voters. But many experts say poll numbers may not accurately reflect the real impact that big names can have on a campaign.

A CBS News poll conducted last September revealed that 78 percent of people expected celebrity endorsements to have no affect on the election, while nine percent said endorsements would make people less likely to vote for a candidate.

But celebrities do make their mark during election season, according to a Washington State University study published last week in the Mass Communication and Society journal.

"Celebrity endorsed campaigns successfully lowered complacency and helped young people believe in their own impact on the political system," the study reported. "Young people got involved at higher levels and became increasingly aware of societal issues."

The study found that an increase in young voter participation could be attributed to the work of celebs, and looked at the influence of star-studded "get out and vote" campaigns in 2004 involving Beyonce Knowles, Christina Aguilera, Sean “P. Diddy” Combs' famous “Vote or Die” mantra, and others.

David Jackson, a political science professor at Bowling Green State University in Ohio, has also done significant research on the connection between entertainment and politics, conducting a study of 18- to 25-year-olds to find out how celebrity endorsements of certain political ideas affect them.

“We know celebrity endorsements matter,” Jackson said. “Getting people to admit it — that’s another story.”

It would be a rare occasion for a McCain supporter to turn around and become an Obama supporter simply because a celebrity told him to do so. But, says Jackson, people who weren’t planning on voting or were undecided could be persuaded by celebrities to get out and vote.

“What we’ve found is that popular positions are made more popular by celebrities, and unpopular positions are made more unpopular,” Jackson said. “There’s not much persuading.”

The marriage between star power and politics has a long history, and, some experts say, can have an overall impact on an election.

Hollywood history
Celebrity endorsements go back to the presidential election of 1920, when actor Al Jolson organized Broadway stars in support of Republican candidate Warren Harding, who became the 29^th president in a landslide victory.

The relationship between Hollywood and Washington, D.C., became even stronger by 1932, according to Steve Ross, a historian whose forthcoming book, “Hollywood Left and Right: How Movie Stars Shaped American Politics,” looks at the connection through the years.

“By this time, a majority of celebrities were getting involved politically,” Ross said. “For people like Melvin Douglas and Gene Kelly, it wasn’t just about the box office anymore; it was about coming out as responsible citizens.”

AP Movie actors Edward G. Robinson, left, and Gene Kelly, center, greet Harry S. Truman, who was the Democratic vice-presidential candidate in 1944, before a campaign speech.

Celebrities embraced an even greater role in the 1940s when they became campaign roadies, traveling with candidates and speaking at rallies.

“Republicans and Democrats realized this was much better than just endorsements,” said Ross. “Letters from committee chairmen show that they would expect 1,000 people at a rally, but when they had a Humphrey Bogart or a Lauren Bacall speak, 10,000 people would show up. They would come for the celebrity — but end up hearing the candidate as well.”

Charlton Heston actively campaigned for Richard Nixon in 1972 as a member of the group Democrats for Nixon. He continued to endorse Republican candidates with Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. “[Heston] was a key figure in getting Bush elected in 2000,” said Ross. “He helped the Republicans get swing states like West Virginia by mobilizing [National Rifle Association] members.”

Polls don’t seem to reflect much of an influence nowadays. An October 2007 Gallup Poll revealed that only 8 percent of Democrats were more likely to vote for Obama because of Oprah’s endorsement; 81 percent said it had no affect.

So what is the disconnect?

“The media asks the wrong question. ‘Do celebrity endorsements influence who you vote for?’ Political insiders know that’s a stupid question,” Ross said. “The question should be, ‘Do celebrity endorsements make you pay more attention?’ ”

Particularly in the primaries, when there are a number of candidates who aren’t exactly household names, celebrity endorsements can mean publicity and invaluable visibility.

A December 2007 poll conducted by the Pew Center for Research found that 74 percent of the public could correctly identify Obama as the candidate that Winfrey endorsed, and at the time, 25 percent of Americans said they had heard more about Obama than any other candidate, Democrat or Republican.

But the average voter isn’t quick to admit that celebrities can make a difference.

In a survey of 506 first-time voters, Natalie Wood, assistant director of the Center for Consumer Research, ascertained that although a majority of participants across gender and party lines knew which celebrities were supporting which candidates, it didn’t affect voting behavior.

“People were not swayed by celebrity endorsements,” Wood said. “Most people said they were more influenced by their friends and family when deciding who to vote for.”

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