Shiite split could complicate U.S. security pact

updated 7:55 p.m. ET Oct. 16, 2008

BAGHDAD - A looming split between the two Shiite parties that dominate Iraq's government threatens efforts to win parliamentary approval for a security pact with the U.S. and could set the stage for a major struggle for power in the oil-rich Shiite southern heartland.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council led by Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim have been allies since the 2003 fall of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led regime.

Now they are rapidly turning into bitter rivals, raising the specter of a weakened Shiite front ahead of two key elections next year.

The security agreement, reached after months of tortuous negotiations, would allow U.S. troops to remain here after their U.N. mandate expires Dec. 31. It is critical to ensuring Iraq's security until government forces are capable of taking charge of the fight against insurgents.

A draft has been completed and the government is preparing to submit it to parliament for final approval — which U.S. officials believe is by no means certain.

Draft would require majority
Although passage would require only a majority of the 275-member parliament, al-Maliki will submit the draft only if he is convinced it will receive two-thirds support — which would allow him to fend off critics both here and in neighboring countries such as Iran and Syria, according to al-Maliki's aides, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss strategy.

To reach two-thirds, the draft would need the 30 votes from the Supreme Council.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice discussed the pact over the telephone late Wednesday with Vice President Adil Abdul-Mahdi, a top member of the Supreme Council. (In Washington, Defense Secretary Robert Gates was calling U.S. congressional leaders in support of the agreement.)

But the Supreme Council has said little in public about the negotiations, a stand that a senior aide to party leader al-Hakim said was designed to distance the party from the agreement if it meets significant opposition.

"The Supreme Council did not want to be associated with the agreement," said the aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. "If it founders, then al-Maliki alone must deal with the consequences."

The first hint of opposition by the Supreme Council to the agreement emerged Thursday.

Senior lawmaker Jalal Eddin al-Sagheer said the party will seek "clarification" from al-Maliki when he meets with parliament leaders over the weekend.

Another Supreme Council legislator, Diaa Eddin al-Fayadh, said the party planned to vote on the agreement at a later unspecified date.

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