Canada's leader gambles for majority gov't

Targeting energy costs
The Conservatives have been targeting Dion's plan in television and radio ads, saying it would drive up energy costs. Dion has said he would offset the higher energy prices by cutting income taxes.

"The Conservative ads continue to be really negative on Dion and they have more or less made his mannerisms and his speech and his appearance the election issue," said Robert Bothwell, director of the international relations program at the University of Toronto.

Dion has had little success selling the plan to Canadians, many of whom view him as a weak leader.

"Coming into an election with a promise to enact something called a tax, no matter if it's one cent on bubble gum is not a sensible tactic," Bothwell said.

Harper supported the U.S.-led war in Iraq when he was in the opposition in 2003. Dion was part of the Liberal government at the time that opposed the war.

Harper, who once derisively referred to Canada as a "northern European welfare state," said during this campaign that Canada has become more conservative and said Canadians now celebrate the military as well as universal health care as sources of national pride. But he acknowledged that the Canadian public is not as conservative as some in his party.

As Conservative leader, Harper reduced former Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberal government to a minority in 2004 and he won a minority in early 2006.

Harper controlled 127 seats across Canada in the last Parliament. He needs 155 seats for a majority government.

Extended Canada's military mission
Since becoming prime minister, Harper has extended Canada's military mission in Afghanistan and pulled Canada out of the Kyoto Protocol, which commits industrialized nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Flanagan said Harper has moderated in recent years.

"His views might have been similar to those of the Republicans in the United States but certainly not at this point," Flanagan said. "He's still right of center in his views. He favors all the values of the right, smaller government and lower taxes and open markets and so forth, but he'll depart from any of those values at any time for political reasons."

If he wins a majority, just how conservative he truly is remains to be seen.

Stephen Clarkson, a political economy scientist at the University of Toronto, said Canadians may fear a Conservative majority led by Harper.

"He comes from the neoconservative school of thinking represented in the Bush administration," Clarkson said.

Bothwell said he is an ideologue.

"He's backtracked to keep himself in power until the right moment has arrived," Bothwell said. "I don't see any evidence of moderation. I do see evidence of political calculation."

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