McCain, Obama sharply divided on Iraq goals

Obama's 'time goal'
Mr. Obama has said he would remove the remaining combat brigades at the rate of one or two a month over a 16-month period. In the interview he argued that it was important to set a new course that would put pressure on the Iraqis to overcome their differences, free up more American forces for Afghanistan and other potential trouble spots, and reduce expenditures so they could finance programs at home.

“If our benchmarks or conditions that we set are contingent on actions by the Iraqis and the Iraqis don’t take them, then we are not in control of our own circumstances and our deployments,” Mr. Obama said. “At some point we have got to break that link. We have got to be able to say to the Iraqis: we are going to make a set of decisions, and you’ve got to react to them.”

Despite talk that Mr. Obama’s plan parallels the timeline in a draft American-Iraqi agreement, there are important distinctions. The “time goal” in the draft accord calls for the withdrawal of American forces by the end of 2011, more than twice as long as Mr. Obama’s 16-month deadline. And in the view of American negotiators, a “time goal” is more flexible than an ironclad deadline.

In past years, the United States has generally increased its troop levels when the Iraqis have held major elections, and American officers are generally wary of making deep troop cuts before the provincial and parliamentary elections are held over the next year.

Residual force
Seeking to preserve a measure of flexibility, Mr. Obama said that he would “reserve the right to pause a withdrawal” if it led to a major increase in sectarian violence. He also reiterated that he planned to keep a residual military force to pursue militants from Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, protect American installations and personnel, and, if Iraqi forces conducted themselves in a nonsectarian manner, train Iraqi troops.

Mr. Obama said that such a residual force would probably include Special Operations forces, teams of military advisers, combat planes, attack helicopters, medical helicopters and perhaps some smaller-scale combat units to protect the advisers.

He declined to estimate the size of the force, saying he would decide that after consulting commanders. But Richard J. Danzig, a secretary of the Navy in the Clinton administration who is regarded as a likely choice to serve as Mr. Obama’s secretary of defense, said in a June interview with National Public Radio that it could number from 30,000 to 55,000 troops.

“If we have some Special Forces in the region, they are going to be engaging in combat, taking out any potential terrorist camps,” Mr. Obama added. “If we have got trainers in the field who are training Iraqi security forces, then I want to make sure that they are protected, and part of that means when you are in a dangerous neighborhood that you have got some combat capability.”

Iraq's preparedness?
It is far from clear that the Iraqi military will be able to take the lead from the Americans as quickly as Mr. Obama assumes. In a July opinion article in The New York Times, Mr. Obama noted that Lt. Gen. James M. Dubik, who oversaw the training of Iraqi forces, told a Congressional hearing that Iraq’s army and police would be able to assume responsibility for security in 2009.

But General Dubik said in an e-mail message last month that this represented his most optimistic projection. “My best estimate is sometime between 2009 and 2012,” he said. “Even at 2012, they may want and need some help with their air force, for example, or with some of their intelligence and special operations forces.”

Mr. McCain has argued that reductions should be determined by political and military circumstances, a stance taken by Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who told reporters in June that he favored a “conditions-based approach” that would allow the United States to continuously assess and adjust to events on the ground.

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