Democrats plan to win, with or without Obama

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - For Democratic members of Congress, life will go on after Jan. 20, 2009 — with or without a President Barack Obama.

Some House Democrats say Obama's ticket will help them win their districts, while others are running their own campaigns with plans to survive if he loses.

Asked if Obama is a factor in his House race in western Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District, Rep. Jason Altmire, D-Pa., said, “I don’t think the top of the ticket is going to matter.”

It appears to be Altmire's way of diplomatically distancing himself from the Democratic presidential nominee.

On Election Day, Altmire will be facing the Republican he defeated in 2006, former Rep. Melissa Hart. “We’re both pretty well known in the district. I think the race is going to be won or lost by us, not by who’s on top of the ticket,” Altmire said.

Video Key states still in play Sept. 18: Analyst Charlie Cook examines hotly contested states in the battle for 270 electoral votes. Among them: Florida, with 27 electoral votes. MSNBC

President Bush carried Altmire’s district with 54 percent of the vote in 2004.

Altmire's race is rated “Lean Democratic” by the non-partisan Cook Political Report. That category designation — closest to a “Toss Up” in Cook's rating system — means that the district is competitive turf for both parties.

Only eight of the 235 seats now held by Democrats are rated as “Toss Ups” by the Cook Political Report.

House Democrats who were among the earliest and most vocal Obama supporters — such as Rep. David Loebsack of Iowa and Rep. Robert Wexler of Florida — tend to come from safe Democratic districts.

In those areas, extra Obama enthusiasm won’t affect the congressional outcome, they’ll simply be icing on the already baked victory cake.

In some of the more competitive districts, Democrats do welcome the potential energy boost, but plan to win even if Obama fervor on Election Day proves to be less than expected.

Video Blasting McCain on economy Sept. 18: Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama ties John McCain to an “old boys’ network” in Washigton. NBC’s Lee Cowan reports. Today show

In southern Minnesota’s mostly rural 1st Congressional District, first-term Democrat Tim Walz said he’s concentrating on his own economic message.

“People are talking about a secure job, a pension that is going to be there, health care. It’s a message I’ve been talking about basically my whole life,” Walz said.

“In the presidential race, it is going to be who defines themselves best as supporting the middle class. I think Sen. Obama has done a good job of that,” he said.

Obama effect in rural Minnesota
And does Obama affect Walz’s race?

Walz paused for a moment and then said, “You know, I don’t think there is an impact ... we’ve been out there an awful lot where people see me as the representative from southern Minnesota and the national race is the national race.”

Walz has built his own grassroots organization. “If the presidential campaign comes in on top of that and does more, the better for all of us, but if not, we’re still not counting on that,” he said.

Bush carried Walz’s district in 2004 with 51 percent. The Cook Political Report rates the Walz contest against Republican Brian Davis as “Likely Democratic.”

Another first-term Democrat, Rep. Tim Mahoney of Florida, whose race Cook rates as “Lean Democratic,” said in his district, which Bush carried with 54 percent, Obama is gaining strength.

“In the polls I’ve been doing, he’s improving,” Mahoney said. “He’s still behind, but the margin is narrowing. He’s got a big organization and he’s knocking on doors every night and he’s making sure the Democrats come out. My campaign is focusing on independents and moderate Republicans, so it’s been very synergistic. He’s bringing out the base and I’m focused on independents and moderate Republicans.”

He added, “There’s going to be a large number of people who are going to vote for John McCain and who are (also) going to vote for Tim Mahoney.”

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