An election ‘game changer’ from Wall Street?

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - Never has a financial crisis of this magnitude hit so close to a presidential election.

So, as people ponder the latest poll numbers — and the numbers in their 401(k) accounts — the question is whether this will change the contest between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain.

Many are wondering how the wizardry of Wall Street financial engineering created such a mess. Even those who don't understand the mechanics of a “credit default swap” could still see frightening turmoil in the stock and bond markets Monday.

Democratic presidential candidates have successfully run against Wall Street in the past. In 1948, fighting for his job, President Harry Truman railed against “bloodsuckers who have offices on Wall Street.”

Taking his oath in 1933, Franklin Roosevelt criticized “the unscrupulous money changers” who “have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization.”

Time for Truman-FDR rhetoric?
Does the financial meltdown of Lehman Brothers make it more or less likely that Obama will follow his Democratic predecessors, sounding a similar, anti-Wall Street horn?

Or can Obama safely do without the populist rhetoric because voters have already concluded that the financial meltdown was a result of a too business-friendly Republican administration?

One important slice of the electorate will be those who have prospered handsomely in the past eight years, but who are undecided on the best person to manage an array of national security and economic threats.

In the 2004 election, nearly one-fifth of the electorate made $100,000 or more. Bush won 58 percent of such voters, and a second term.

To win on Nov. 4, Obama may need to expand the Democratic share of such upper-income voters — or greatly expand the number of lower-income voters, or do some of both. Raw populism might alienate those in the upper brackets.

In one sense, both candidates' campaign funds have benefited from the Wall Street’s prosperity — which has produced many people earning more than $250,000.

Video Biden attacks McCain's economic plan Sep. 15: Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Joe Biden says John McCain's economic plan would provide additional tax breaks for the rich while hurting the middle class. MSNBC

Campaign funds from Lehman employees
Obama’s campaign treasury has collected nearly $400,000 in campaign contributions from employees of Lehman Brothers, while McCain campaign has $145,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a non-partisan research group.

Democratic activist and author David Sirota said the opportunity was there to make this campaign a more populist one.

“The Wall Street crisis presents a political opportunity for either of the candidates to seize the mantle of populist reform — but it’s not clear either of them will, for similar reasons,” said Sirota.

“McCain could position himself as a Teddy Roosevelt Republican by talking tough about regulation, but he won't because it would offend the money wing of his own party. Obama could cite the crisis as a perfect example of what Democrats will crack down on if he wins the presidency, but he may hesitate because he has raised a huge amount of cash from Wall Street.”

He added, “The reticence by both candidates on these issues shows precisely why Wall Street is bipartisan in its political donations. Corporate interests don't just buy legislative favors, they buy silence from politicians at times when an economic meltdown should prompt full-throated criticism and reform.”

It is one oddity of the 2008 campaign that there has been no latter-day Ross Perot, no anti-Washington outsider who has exploited the current economic distress.

John Edwards tried to play that role in the Democratic primaries, but it failed to catch fire.

The only Perot-like figure was Rep. Ron Paul and he proved to have only minimal appeal in the Republican primaries and was not willing to run as an independent.

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