5 reasons to travel during the 2008 holidays

Christopher Elliott Travel columnist • Profile • E-mail

Here’s a holiday travel forecast you probably won’t read anywhere else: look for lower prices on everything from air fares to hotel room rates, smaller crowds and a more pleasant overall experience.

Am I nuts? Couldn’t I just write the same story everyone else is? You know — the holidays are coming! The holidays are coming! They’ll be busier than ever this year. So here are a dozen tips on how to stay sane, but really, you’re better off just staying home.

That’s how the facts seem to line up. Consider:

Airlines will pare their domestic flights by 8.1 percent during the last four months of the year. That’s a total of 25 million fewer seats, according to an estimate by OAGback Aviation Solutions and reported by my colleague, Msnbc.com columnist Rob Lovitt. It’s the biggest pullback since 2001 — and perhaps ever. Drivers are making similar cutbacks. Since last November, Americans have driven 53.2 billion miles less than they did over the same period a year earlier, according to the Transportation Department. That’s a bigger drop than the one in the oil crisis of the 1970s, which precipitated a decline of 49.3 billion miles. As a result, Labor Day travel by car was basically flat compared with last year, and car rental rates have remained more or less unchanged since 2007. Hotels are feeling the pinch, too. They were about two-thirds full, on average, during the second quarter of this year, down by more than two percent from the same period a year earlier, according to Smith Travel Research. The only bright spot — at least for the hotels — is that they’ve been able to squeeze more money out of each guest. Average room rates are up by almost four percent for the same period. That’s bad news and more bad news for travelers. Panicky hoteliers are cranking up the fees and rates on their remaining guests. That’s no fun.

You don’t have to be a snarky travel columnist to connect the dots and conclude that this is going to be the worst fall for travel ever and that the upcoming holidays will be completely unbearable.

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But that would be nonsense. The fall of 2008 and Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years might be among the best for travel in recent memory. Certainly, the best since 2001. It could even be the best ever.

I’ve come to this contrarian conclusion after talking with a lot of folks in the travel industry and with you, dear travelers. You are not barricading yourselves in your bedrooms like extras in a zombie movie. You have no problem scheduling a trip during the holidays. No, you are actually looking forward to this fall. Here are five reasons why I am, too:

Behold, a president bearing gifts
Regardless of who wins the presidential election in November, travelers can probably expect a change for the better. Practically speaking, it could mean lower fuel prices (after all, both candidates say they want to lessen our dependence on foreign oil) and a higher dollar (both candidates have pledged to control spending and jumpstart the economy). Author and blogger Janet Groene is upbeat about travel after the presidential election, adding that her optimism holds true, “no matter who wins.” I agree.

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