Leno’s departure will spark late-night chaos

Less than a year from now, the universe of late-night television will have shifted its orbit.

On May 29, 2009, on Johnny Carson’s very own soundstage, Jay Leno will say goodbye as host of “The Tonight Show.” Four years ago, NBC announced that the network was planning to eventually replace Leno with Conan O'Brien. The network surely believe that planning so far ahead, and so publicly, would help to create a smooth transition. Yet here’s the funny part: Leno’s ratings remain solid and the network might be committing ratings suicide.

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Not wanting to lose Conan O’Brien to another network when his contract expired, NBC told the redheaded comedian that he could have “The Tonight Show” job after Leno left. Somehow, the network convinced Leno to agree to the 2009 retirement — even though he was, and is, crushing Letterman in the ratings. O'Brien, who nearly didn’t survive his first few weeks on the job, will begin his new gig on June 1.

It was never clear whether Leno really wanted to leave, or whether he was convinced by NBC that it would be the right move. The decision is looking shaky at best right now. Imagine Fox asking Simon Cowell to leave Nielsen juggernaut “American Idol” just because they were afraid to lose "Fifth Grader" host Jeff Foxworthy to another network.

With the Leno-to-O'Brien transition nearing ever closer to reality, NBC is worried. There’s a real possibility that the network might give up its title as late-night champ and, almost as humiliating, face the very possible scenario of having Leno move on to a job with a competitor.

ABC has already said it would be interested in finding a spot for Leno as a late-night host. In one scenario, “Nightline,” which has struggled in the past, would vacate the 11:30 p.m. spot and Leno could come over there. Jimmy Kimmel would then be faced with a decision: Move his midnight chatfest to 12:30 a.m. or take his talents to another network.

NBC has already hired “Saturday Night Live” alum Jimmy Fallon to fill O'Brien's 12:30 a.m. slot after Leno makes his move. While Fallon was a terrific “Weekend Update” host on “Saturday Night Live,” there’s no telling how he'll will come across as a talk-show host. NBC is counting on the same magic that worked with O'Brien — a virtual unknown before landing his “Late Night” gig — will rub off on Fallon.

Meanwhile, as this juggling goes on, there are still a number of other shows fighting for viewers in the crowded late-night landscape.

Here’s a quick assessment of who’s doing stellar work, who needs improvement and what we can expect in the future.

“The Tonight Show With Jay Leno”
Where: NBC, 11:35 p.m.
Grade: C+
Strengths: Leno is the consummate joke teller. He still goes to the Comedy and Magic Club in Hermosa Beach, Calif., every Sunday night to perform his standup routine and test out new jokes. If you’re interested in a comedian who spits out funnies in a machine-gun rapidity, Leno’s the guy.
Weaknesses: Leno doesn’t have much of a personality. He comes off as a bit bland. But then again, if you want to get the widest audience, that might be your best strategy.

“Jimmy Kimmel Live”
Where: ABC, 12:05 a.m.
Grade: B
Strengths: With lots of rap artists and indie-label bands as guests, Kimmel is best at attracting the teen and college-age viewers that were once Letterman’s domain. Plus, when he puts together a skit that resonates — think his retort with Ben Affleck to ex-girlfriend Sarah Silverman’s fling with Matt Damon — the result ricochets around the You Tube universe more than bits from other show. He’s quickly gaining steam.
Weaknesses: His choice to use family and those who work on the show — Cousin Sal, Guillermo — as part of the skits is homespun, but can come off as a bit lazy. Also, his joke-telling delivery could use some work.

Dana Edelson / NBC via AP Conan O'Brien will be moving up soon, but couldn't he get a better set?

“Late Night With Conan O’Brien”
Where: NBC, 12:30 a.m.
Grade: B-
Strengths: Conan’s self-mockery never gets old, and guests appearing on the show are always much looser than they would be if appearing on Leno or Letterman. Bruce Springsteen drummer Max Weinberg leads the best band in late-night.
Weaknesses: The woefully homemade skits that were funny years ago seem a little bit lame now, and it comes across as though NBC doesn’t want to put any money into the production. The show has always thrived on a shoestring budget, but one would think O'Brien has earned enough of a reputation that the network could spruce up the set a bit by now.

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