Forces align against GOP in Senate races

Democrats are also running strong in a handful of states that previously seemed out of reach.

In Alaska, their quest to defeat Sen. Ted Stevens, the longest-serving GOP senator, got a boost with his recent indictment on felony charges of hiding a quarter-million dollars' worth of gifts from an oil company. Democrats have groomed Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who's well-known in the state because his late father was a legislator and congressman, to challenge Stevens.

If Stevens wins his six-way primary Aug. 26, the outcome of the November race could turn in large part on the verdict in his case, which goes to trial less than six weeks before Election Day.

In Colorado, public polls show Democratic Rep. Mark Udall in a dead heat in his race against former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. Schaffer has been dogged by accusations he was tied to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, but has gained traction recently by attacking Udall for his opposition to more oil drilling at a time of rising gas prices.

Another tight race is in New Hampshire, where incumbent Republican Sen. John E. Sununu is in a rematch against former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. The state is famously independent and unpredictable, but it's turned more Democratic since Sununu eked out a 4-point win over Shaheen in 2002, and the sour public mood toward Republicans is helping Shaheen.

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A tough environment for Republicans also has put Oregon into play. Democrat Jeff Merkley, the statehouse speaker, is challenging Sen. Gordon Smith, a two-term moderate Republican so eager to distance himself from his party that he ran an ad boasting of his ties to Obama. National Democrats are countering with ads of their own that call Smith a friend of Big Oil.

Democrats are also advertising in strongly Republican Mississippi, where they hope Obama will spark turnout among African-American voters high enough to help knock out Sen. Roger Wicker. Wicker faces former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in a special election to serve out the remaining four years of retired Sen. Trent Lott's term.

A similar dynamic could play out in North Carolina, where the potential for high black voter turnout is causing unexpected worries for Dole. For now, she leads Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan in both polls and fundraising in North Carolina's first-ever all-woman Senate contest.

Democrats have uphill battles in a couple of states where they had hoped to be well ahead of Republicans.

In Minnesota, Coleman is holding his own in a race against comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken, who has been battered with criticism for a satirical column he wrote for Playboy Magazine in 2000 called "Porn-O-Rama!" and for tax-filing irregularities.

And in Maine, Collins is relying on her reputation for reaching across party lines to counter Democratic Rep. Tom Allen's attempts to tie her to Bush.

Reaching even further to into Republicans' comfort zone, Democrats also hold out hopes — if everything goes their way — of ousting McConnell, a master of Senate rules who has been a constant thorn in their side, or Sen. Saxby Chambliss in Georgia.

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