Pakistan relations complicate al-Qaida fight

“I have long said that the central terrorist threat to the United States lies in northwest Pakistan and Afghanistan, and not Iraq,” said Obama. “U.S. policy must focus on assuring that all elements of Pakistan's government are resolute in shutting down the safe havens for al Qaeda and the Taliban.”

For his part, McCain said, “The situation in Pakistan's frontier regions requires immediate and continued attention, and I hope that the elections for President Musharraf's successor will serve to reconcile the Pakistani people behind a leader who can solidify their government internally.”

Unanswered questions
Though both candidates say they will increase troops in Afghanistan, there are no guarantees that this will help locate al-Qaida pockets in the region.

Also, there are questions about how cooperative a Musharraf-less government will be when it comes to aiding U.S. military efforts.

“What is significant is the amount of complaints from the administration you’re seeing in the press about the Pakistani government not doing enough to deal with the al-Qaida presence inside their borders,” said Cressey.

“For the next president, this could be the most pressing issue they face in their first year in office.”

But regardless of troop levels or Pakistan cooperation, Cressey believes that U.S. airstrikes on the region will continue.

“No matter who’s elected in November, the Predator will remain a key part of the next president’s al-Qaida strategy,” he said, adding, “It has to, because it’s the best way to take out al-Qaida leaders in the Pakistan safe haven.”

Cressey continued, “The troop increase will be important, but will not help us with the single biggest threat we now face — the growth of the al-Qaida sanctuary inside Pakistan.”

Potential pitfalls for the next president
During a meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani in early August, Bush administration officials voiced concerns over the government’s control over the Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency.

Some operatives in the ISI are suspected of having ties with Pakistani militants.

Earlier this month, The New York Times reported that American intelligence claimed to have evidence that members of the ISI helped plan the July bombing of India’s embassy in Afghanistan.

“There’s real concern that the ISI is conducting activities in Afghanistan that are completely at odds with U.S. interests,” said Cressey. “Pakistan has always viewed Afghanistan as part of their ‘sphere of influence,’ and the ISI will do what it believes is in Islamabad’s interest, regardless of its impact of U.S. policies.”

“The real challenge is the next president can say anything he wants to try to pressure Pakistan to rein in ISI activities, but it’s unlikely to lead to any real change,” he added.

In addition, the Afghan government publicly accused the ISI of organizing a failed plot to assassinate President Hamid Karzai in April.

These accusations and events could further complicate relations in the region and make it harder for the next president to continue ongoing U.S. efforts against al-Qaida.

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